5 Common Factors That Affect Card Pricing

Whether you’re a flipper, looking to buy/sell for your PC, or are just curious about the values of your cards, I’m going to cover the why behind card fluctuations in prices.

After all, if you don’t understand the reasoning behind price drops or increases, how can you invest with any consistency?

Let’s dive in!

1. Hype

All-time greats drive the card market. While some collectors chase niche players like JJ Redick or Derek Carr, most of the hobby follows hype and star power.

Highly touted prospects, like Luka Doncic, often debut with sky-high prices that take time to cool. Luka, a generational European talent, dominated early and made 1st Team All-NBA at 20. His cards exploded and stayed high.

In contrast, players with less initial hype, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, see slower price growth, even after major success. SGA was the 11th pick, had a solid rookie year, and gradually improved. Now, with both an MVP and a championship, many consider him better than Luka.

And finally, the market is catching up: Luka’s PSA 10 Prizm rookie has dipped from $250 to $180. SGA’s has risen from $80 to the same $180.

Hype may set the early floor, but performance determines who holds long-term value.

2. Time of the Year

“Buy in the offseason, sell during the season” is common advice—and generally true. Collectors get excited watching players in action, boosting demand. But timing matters.

In the NFL, prices often spike before Week 1, especially as the content machine really gets going, making August a risky time to buy unless you have a strong angle.

Most sports also have midseason lulls. In the NBA, prices often dip in December and January, then rise again around the trade deadline and All-Star break.

For baseball, a similar dip happens in June through August before playoff hype kicks in. Understanding these cycles can help you buy smarter.

3. Team Popularity

Here’s one that many in the hobby often overlook. The more people interested in a player, the more buyers there are to drive the price up.

So, teams with massive followings, like the Lakers, Yankees, Dodgers, Knicks, and Cowboys, often see their stars receive favorable pricing.

For example, think of someone like Ohtani, who went from the lowly Angels to the massively popular Dodgers—many of his cards jumped 50% in value almost overnight.

On the other hand, someone like Kyle Kuzma, who won a championship with the Lakers, falls off everyone’s radar when shipped out to the awful Wizards (and is now a below-average player on the Bucks).

Or Juan Soto, whose Topps Update Batting rookie was selling for around $70 when he signed with the Mets. Pricing immediately dropped off a cliff, halving in just 5 months.

4. Style of Play / Likability / Position

Michael Jordan isn’t just the greatest—he was the coolest. His style, dominance, and influence made him the most popular athlete ever.

In the hobby, flash and likability often matter as much as skill. That’s why Allen Iverson and Ken Griffey Jr. are more collected than David Robinson or Barry Bonds.

Position matters, too. In football, QBs dominate the market. Micah Parsons’ Prizm PSA 10 sells for $21, while Baker Mayfield’s goes for $85.

In baseball, pitchers and catchers get less love due to injuries, shorter careers, and fewer counting stats. The hobby rewards excitement and longevity over quiet consistency.

5. Injuries

When a player gets an injury, especially a serious one, it’s much less exciting for people in the hobby to collect that player. After all, few were hyped up about Jayson Tatum right after his Achilles tear. There’s also uncertainty as to whether the player will return at full strength.

Ronald Acuña Jr., Dak Prescott, and Zion Williamson are a few who saw massive drop-offs due to injuries. Zion’s pricing is more of a roller coaster due to constant injuries interrupted by sporadic bouts of dominant play.

The hobby often just…forgets about players if they’ve been gone for a long time. Even after an initial drop-off, players may experience a gradual downward trend throughout their injury.

NOTE: This section is a condensed version of chapter 3 in my new book about teaching beginners to flip sports cards, Cards to Cash. It’ll be live on Amazon on Monday!

Buy/Sell Targets - Football Edition

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy and how I see the market, and for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔ Bo Nix 🏈 - Here’s the deal. I think he’ll be a solid player. He ended the year with good stats, even though he had some awful games in there. Did you realize he didn’t throw a touchdown until his FOURTH game…and ended up with 29? Why can’t he throw for 35 TDs and 4,200 yards on an 11-win team? His pricing has stayed relatively the same (on the cards I tracked) since the summer, so he hasn’t had a big bump yet. Jump in now.

✔ CJ Stroud 🏈 - The hobby jumped off this kid real quick. I get it, the hype was insane after that rookie season, but he’s already won two playoff games and still has a solid receiving core with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk (and Tank Dell, maybe?). With PSA 10s of his Prizm base sitting around $40, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that jump 50% if he comes out solid.

(P.S. I similarly worry about Jayden Daniels’ sky-high pricing if he can’t replicate what was perhaps the best rookie season of ALL TIME)

❌ JJ McCarthy 🏈 - I think the expectations here are insane. Yes, they’re a solid all-around team that will win some games, but he’s a rookie coming off a major injury (which often leaves players jittery for a bit after coming back). The schedule shows some good defenses mixed in with some bad ones early, so there’s nothing to really bank on there.

❌ Josh Allen 🏈 - This is NOT a knock on the player, just his pricing. I don’t like that his pricing has increased since March (the opposite of the usual offseason trend), and he’s near his highs from the past 18 months. With the MVP win, he needs a Super Bowl to really bump pricing. As good as he is, what are the odds he wins it this year? 10%? That’s not good enough for me. I’d rather sell or just plan to hold forever. Certainly not buying right now. His PSA 10 Prizm rookie pricing:

❌ - Matthew Stafford 🏈 - Call me crazy, but just a gut feeling here. Yes, he has Puka and Davante to throw to…but I think people are too high on an old QB that’s never been an MVP-type player. His pricing has trended up in the past year, but I’m not sure why. It’s been three seasons since he put up awesome stats, and Puka was injury-prone last year. Here’s his Card Ladder Player Index for the past year:

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ National Recap - The boys at Sports Cards Nonsense give an excellent breakdown, both from a collector's side and a business perspective.

+ CGC What’s Next - While PSA’s still the king, “Sports card grading by CGC Cards is up 631% in the first half of 2025 compared to the year prior, with June setting a monthly record for the business with 570,000 cards graded.” They’ve got the backing to make a big move, so I wonder if the play is to start buying CGC graded cards now in the hopes that they overtake PSA one day in value.

+ Flagg This Guy - The headline says it all: “Cooper Flagg's Summer League debut jersey sells for record $95,250.” That’s an insane number. I’ve talked a lot recently about hype for modern players vs safe vintage collecting. This is the pinnacle of the craziness of buying a (very expensive) lottery ticket.

+ Pokemon Go to Jail - If you’ve read my newsletter long, you’ll know that it never ceases to amaze me how many criminals steal cards. This week I found FOUR articles…I just picked the one with the highest value. Is it bad that I find myself scoffing at the $500 robberies but feeling mildly impressed when people steal $50k?

How To Pick the Best Sports Cards to Invest In (2025)

Today I’ll show you a few of the cards I’ve personally invested in recently….

But more than that, I’ll show you how I decide which cards to invest in! It’s different for everyone, but I’ll show you how to pick based on your specific goals, budget, and time frame…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.