Handcuff NFL Players to Take Flyers On

If you’re one of the 50 million or so Americans who play fantasy football, then you’re probably familiar with the term “handcuff” players.

Essentially, if a certain player gets injured, is there a backup that could come in and put up huge numbers?

For example, if Christian McCaffrey gets injured (which he probably will), then his backup could dominate in the 49ers system!

Of course, we’ll put our hobby spin on it. I’m not going to talk about rookies because pricing is always whack when things are first released (Jaxson Dart is the obvious example of a player primed to take over). Also, I’m not interested in older veterans as backups because they’ll probably have no hobby interest (e.g., Jimmy G on the Rams).

But, that young RB that’s getting buzz? Sure, why not!

Also, understand that we’re talking flyers here…not stars. These are the guys who you’re buying autos for $5 and hoping to flip for $20 after a few good starts. These are penny stocks that are less likely to pan out, but could 3x - 5x your money!

Let’s have some fun!

1. Will Shipley, RB, Eagles

The infamous “Curse of 370,” popularized by Aaron Schatz, shows that running backs often have down years after a season in which they get 370 touches. In fact, about half the time, they miss half the following season!

Saquon had 482. We know the Eagles want to run, and Will Shipley is listed as RB2. The Eagles reportedly love the guy. He’s got numbered autos listed for $7 BIN on eBay. If Saquon misses a stretch and Shipley has a few good games, that number triples in a hurry.

Plus, based on his ESPN pic, he looks less like a running back than anyone I’ve ever seen, so that’s fun.

2. Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks

Preseason indicators suggest that the Seahawks should be a significantly improved running team, based on their scheme and yards-before-contact numbers (smarter people than I are saying this).

Kenneth Walker is listed as RB1, but the guy gets banged up a lot. He played 12 games last year, and played through injuries in prior years. No, Charbonnet isn’t about to be Saquon 2.0, but he could end up being the lead back on a solid, run-focused team.

Like Shipley, you’re looking at rookie autos of his for $8 or less.

3. Braelon Allen, RB, Jets

The Jets are going to run, and Breece Hall hasn’t been the stud people thought he’d be after some electric gains his rookie year. He’s also had a major injury before.

Enter Braelon Allen. He’s only 21, and played a small role last year. If Hall misses time or underwhelms, we could see a lot more Allen. The Jets appear to be high on him.

4. Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs

Rashee Rice is the #1 option in KC, but he’s suspended for the first 6 games of the season.

There’s a track record of 2nd-year receivers really taking off. Worthy could start the year with some really gaudy numbers, giving you an opportunity to flip before Rice comes back.

He’s definitely pricier than others on this list because he plays for the Chiefs and was a first-rounder, but there’s room for price growth if he becomes a legit weapon.

5. Zach Wilson, QB, Miami

I wanted to include a QB on this list, but there just aren’t that many interesting back-ups! So, maybe I only picked Wilson because I went to BYU as well. Here me out.

First, you have an injury-prone starter in Tua. Next, you have two awesome WRs in Hill and Waddle. Wilson still has the physical tools of a top QB (there’s a reason he was drafted second overall). I could see him having a stellar first game, and people start saying things like “maybe it was the Jets’ fault!” Change of scenery + the hobby’s infatuation with speculating on QBs could make Wilson an interesting play here. Just sell him fast, as I doubt he can sustain decent play for any period of time. (In fact, if you buy, I’d list him now at a price you want to sell in anticipation of a Tua injury.

What do you think? Are there any others you’d add to this list?

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔ Tarik Skubal ⚾ - So, the guy is so under the radar that he doesn’t even have cards listed in Card Ladder! The hobby’s a little slow to him because 1) he’s a pitcher and 2) he didn’t have a great season until he was 27…but that was last year and it came with a Cy Young. He’s currently the favorite to win it again on a team with the second-best record in baseball. He’ll probably never be Paul Skenes in hobby popularity, but the guy is great and the playoffs are coming.

✔ Mookie Betts ⚾ - I refuse to believe that he’s barely an above-average starter, for someone with his athleticism and still just 32. Note how many times this card (PSA 10 Topps Update Batting) has dropped to $100 in the past two years, only to bounce back up to over $150. I think it’s a great buy at $100 during this dead-ish time of the season and sell him during the playoffs.

❌ Paul Skenes ⚾ - He’s the massive Cy Young favorite, so you might think “wait until he wins it!” The hobby’s gotten smarter, and the obvious favorites for awards rarely see a bump when it’s announced. He’s already being priced as the Cy Young winner, and his cards just keep going up in value (the difference with Skubal is that he’s not a massive hobby star). This Bowman Draft Chrome PSA 10 Auto likes to hit the $1,500 mark (the red line on the graph) and then fall back down. For a guy who’s going to miss the playoffs, sell at the high now, and then look to buy back in during the offseason (if you want to be into Skenes long-term.)

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

Today, I’ll cover one major story, and it looks like this:

That’s the card that broke the all-time record for a card sale, at $12.9 million! If you haven’t been following, this card is a 1/1 featuring logo patches taken from jerseys worn by both Jordan and Kobe. Logoman cards are the premier cards in existence, so it makes sense that this one would set the record.

It also more than doubled the record for a basketball card sale.

It’s big enough news that it’s being reported on mainstream platforms. Kevin O’Leary, AKA Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank, purchased this card (along with two investors).

I’ve seen a variety of takes online, from overwhelmingly positive to “the hobby is ruined!”

Here are my thoughts:

1. Perhaps the most famous investor right now just bought the most expensive card in history. If that isn’t a signal to other rich people to get involved, I don’t know what is.

2. No, deep-pocket investors don’t affect your collection or mine, as they’re focused on uber-expensive cards. It does validate people who want to flip cards or buy & hold at all levels. This can be either good or bad (more on this later), but I generally believe that consistent hobby growth is good for all.

3. In fact, more rich people wanting to invest in the hobby can lead to innovation and new technology. What if Mark Cuban decided to launch an AI grading company that offered complete transparency?

4. I don’t understand why people act as protectors of hobby purity: “It’s supposed to be about collecting!” That’s cool for some people, but making money has always been around. What do you think card shops do? They’re not charities. Enjoy the hobby however you darn well please. Most people who invest in cards also have a PC 🤷‍♂️

5. I definitely understand the complaint that commercialization of the hobby drives prices up. I get it. However, I’ve always believed there are price points for everyone. If my 6-year-old wants a box of Flawless, well he ain’t getting it. But, he has enough money to go buy a Topps Series 1 blaster. There will always be endless $1 - $5 cards to buy of your favorite players or teams. You don’t need to buy a hobby box, just like I don’t need a Porsche.

I know the sentiment online is massively divided over this. I’d love to hear some opinions on this from you guys! Respond and let me know where you come down on what this logoman purchase means for the hobby.

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