A Primer on What Makes Autographed Cards More or Less Valuable

My main PC (personal collection) is getting autographed cards for the NBA players named to the Top-75 list.

So, I thought it’d be fun to talk about what to look for in an auto, what makes an auto worth more, what dings an auto’s value, and more!

This will be massively important if you’re into flipping cards because you’ll understand why some autos are just worth more. If you’re PC-ing them, it’s also nice to know which versions are more desirable!

On-Card vs Stickers

An on-card auto is when the player actually holds the card and signs directly on it. Sticker autos are these big sheets of stickers that the player signs, and then the card company peels the sticker off and puts it on a card.

Of course, on-card autos are fetch a premium. They look better, plus you know the player actually held the card. In my PC, I’m trying to only get on-card autos (or “hard signed”) because they look much cleaner. Sticker autos noticeably detract from the overall aesthetic.

On-card autos became the norm during COVID because restrictions made it harder to meet with players to have them sign cards.

Fortunately, the industry is doing a better job of moving away from stickers (because they’re almost universally reviled), but there are still plenty of them out there. I have a few in my PC for budget reasons, but plan to upgrade to better autos one day.

Beautiful vs Plain

Would you rather collect an auto that looks like Cam Reddish’s…

or Mariano Rivera’s:

If you want a good laugh, there are some awesome threads on Reddit or Facebook Groups where collectors share the worst autos in their collection. Cam Reddish signs in a variety of uniquely awful ways!

Streaky/Smudges/Off-Card/Poorly Written

Sometimes autos are poor quality, not because the player has a bad signature, but because something else is wrong with it. For example, sometimes autos get smudges, or the pen is low on ink.

Sometimes, the auto goes waaaaay out of the area where the player is supposed to sign, such as with my Yusei Kikuchi auto drifting onto the card’s border:

Also, and I don’t want to be insensitive, but as retired players get older, their autos often suffer. For example, here’s my Kareem Abdul-Jabbar auto:

Steadier autos of his are decently more expensive, so I went with the budget option, for now.

Inscriptions

Sometimes players write something along with their signatures, which the hobby calls “inscriptions.” Often, these cause a card to go up in value because they’re even more unique than a regular auto. Plus, it can show the personality of the player a bit more.

I always thought this was a cool one:

I also like Wemby’s here. Have to imagine this is worth a fortune, both now and 20 years from now:

These inscriptions I’ve shown you are players doing it of their own accord on official autographed card products. However, many players will actually do custom inscriptions for you, often for an added cost, through the mail.

My PC

Just to give you a sense, here’s my wish list for cards on my Top-75 PC:

• Numbered

• White background

• On-card auto

• Ungraded (I just display them all in magnetic card holders)

I can’t always get what I want, based on rarity, cost, or a player died a long while ago and my preferred options don’t exist. As of now, most of my autos are National Treasures, Flawless, or Immaculate.

It’s going to take some convincing of the wife when I decide to go after the heavy hitters, like Jordan, Kobe, Wilt, and Maravich (impossible to find since he died in 1988).

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔ Juan Soto ⚾ - I feel like this has happened a few times for Soto. He starts off slow, and doesn’t have a true hot streak, but he’s still so consistent that by the end of the year his numbers look pretty good! He’s not at last year’s level, but he’s still going to approach 6 WAR, which is star territory. His prices have dropped, but he’s on a relevant team. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him bounce back.

✔ Andrew Nembhard & Bennedict Mathurin 🏀 - They’re the most likely replacements (for minutes & shots) on Indiana with Haliburton out. Even with Hali and Turner gone, this is still a deep team that plays hard. It wouldn’t surprise me if they’re still in the playoff mix and these guys are putting up big stats. These are obviously lower-end guys, but they can be great beginner budget flips.

✔ Paolo Banchero 🏀 - I’ve mentioned him before, but we’re in the optimal time to buy NBA right now! The Magic could contend in the East and Paolo is going to be a top-10 guy very soon. I’ve got my eye on a Green Prizm rookie. Getting this card for $10 is a steal.

❌ Joe Burrow 🏈 - This is purely a pricing play. We know he had a tremendous statistical season last year, but he’s higher now than he was going into last season (see his rookie Prizm PSA 10 chart below). Why should we believe that the Bengals will be better than last season? I think it’s a good time to offload now, but if you want to wait until they start 2-0 against the Browns and Jags, you could…although I don’t know if beating two of the worst teams will help his pricing. The sched gets real tough after that.

❌ Saquon Barkley 🏈 - Is he a stud? Absolutely. However, let’s look at the reasons he might regress. He’s unlikely to repeat a 2,000-yard season, and the odds of him breaking off 60+ yard touchdowns with regularity are low (he had 7). Plus, he’s never been a big touchdown guy, so if his yards regress, he’s not going to make it up with 20+ touchdowns with Hurts on his team. Plus, 436 carries in a season (including playoffs) is a massive load. His pricing is up 2.5x just from the start of last season. He’s also a guy who more commonly plays 13-14 games than 16-17. All of that shows me that while he’s still a star, I’m guessing he sees a 30% reduction in price as he comes back to Earth.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ New Most Expensive Card Ever - “Bidding has already surpassed $6.2 million online, eclipsing the previous…record of $5.9 million set by a similar Panini National Treasures Steph Curry rookie card with a game-worn patch.” That’s for the Jordan/Kobe logoman 1/1 auto. I think it’s a good sign that we’re seeing new all-time highs that weren’t set during the insane COVID market. (There’s some debate about including the buyer premium in these calculations. Other outlets say it hasn’t broken the record yet…but it appears to be well on its way by Sunday’s deadline.)

+ Is That Really the Case? - Cardlines put together an incredible article about the true rarity of case hits (like Kaboom and Downtown). Are they as rare as they used to be? “Overall, the data shows a clear evolution: early Kabooms were limited and moderately scarce; post-2022, vertical Kabooms became ultra-rare chase cards with extremely low graded populations, while horizontal Kabooms became widely produced inserts with thousands of copies graded.”

+ Jay Cutler…Card Boom? - In the funniest story of the week, a collector paid over $12k for a Jay Cutler Prizm Black Finite 1/1. It’s more than double what any other Cutler card has ever sold for. This quote from the buyer made my day: “Trust me, I didn’t want to pay this much money for it. I don’t want to spend $12,107 on a Jay Cutler card.” You and me both, buddy.

Better ROI: Should I Buy Raw or Graded Cards?

Every person in the hobby will usually go through a few phases. They’ll think that breaks and opening packs are SUPER fun…but the ROI isn’t there. They’ll buy sealed wax (unopened boxes/packs) to hold…but that’s torture for most people to see the potential for a big hit sitting on their counter…[Keep Reading]

Check Out My New Book, Now Available on Amazon

Forwarded? Subscribe here to get the next one!

Some recommended products in this newsletter are affiliate links. If you purchase, I may earn a small commission. Every recommended product is something I’ve used and would personally recommend to a friend.

The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.