How Is Fanatics Changing the Sports Card Landscape?

Last week, I took the optimistic view of Fanatics taking over…so let’s look at the possible downsides this time.

But first, here’s a quick primer on what’s going on.

I’m Not Up to Date…What’s Happening?

Since the 2009 season, Panini has had the exclusive license to produce NBA and NFL trading cards. This means they were the only company that could produce cards that had team names and logos on them (which are massively favored by sports card collectors over unlicensed).

Then, along came Fanatics.

They purchased Topps in 2021 (who owns the MLB trading card license), and are set to take over licensing for NBA (this fall) and NFL (April 2026). Many are concerned about possible monopolistic issues with the same company holding the three largest licenses.

Why Is Fanatics Bad for the Hobby?

Let’s talk about a few of the reasons to be skeptical about Fanatics controlling so much of the sports card market:

❌ Monopoly Could Hurt Innovation - With one company in control of the most popular card sets, there’s less incentive to stay on top of their game. After all, if they mess things up, there isn’t really an alternative for collectors. It’s possible that we’ll get lazy product designs, poor customer service, and fewer risks taken.

🔻 Junk Wax 2.0 - Fanatics really wants to grow the sports card market, and I think that’s generally a positive. However, I’m also worried that in pursuit of those goals, they could create massive print runs, decreased scarcity, and a repeat of the late 80s to mid 90s, where most cards have no value.

💸 Higher Prices for Boxes - Early signs suggest that pricing may already be on the rise. With no real rival, what’s to stop the trend continuing—especially with breakers making so much money and many boxes selling well on the secondary market?

〽 Decline in LCS (Local Card Shops) - At this moment, I like the standards and audits they’ve done in keeping LCS quality high. However, Fanatics is focused on direct-to-consumer sales, plus they’re opening their own Fanatics-brand card shops. Eventually, local flavor might be lost with small business owners pushed out in favor of cloned Fanatics shops.

🤑 Shift From Hobby to Business - Related to the potential decline of the LCS, it seems possible that Fanatics might slowly erode the soul of collecting. They are a huge business machine with massive goals. Will everything in the hobby be corporatized?

🔐 One Single Platform - Fanatics wants to create one place for collectors to buy, sell, trade, break, grade, and everything else related to collecting. I tend to like this idea, but what if they do a poor job of it? Fanatics is so big that participating with them might be the only viable option in a few years. I’m also concerned about walled gardens or subscription requirements just to be on their platform.

Buy/Sell Targets - NBA Free Agency Edition!

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy and how I see the market, and for entertainment purposes.

✔ Trey Murphy III 🏀 - So, the Pelicans are a dumpster fire. I have no faith in Zion playing consistently. They traded CJ McCollum (for Jordan Poole, who I can’t stand), and Dejounte Murray is out, perhaps for the season. Trey Murphy III should get ALL THE SHOTS. No, don’t hold him thinking he’s a #1 on a title contender, but he put up 21 PPG last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a bona fide 25 PPG guy next year. Small flier on him.

✔ Kevin Durant 🏀 - He’s been in the news a lot with going to the Rockets, but his pricing hasn’t moved much. In fact, his PSA 9 Topps rookie has been on a downward trend in the past 6 months. The Rockets are going to be AWESOME next year (and they just added Dorian Finney-Smith), and he’s far and away the #1. This isn’t him joining the best team ever and coasting to two championships—he’s going to an up-and-coming team that he’s transforming into a legitimate title contender.

✔ Deandre Ayton 🏀 - I like him as a flier. As I’m writing this, he hasn’t committed to a team, but there’s a good chance it’s the Lakers (update: called it!). Going from Portland to LA, with Luka and LeBron throwing him lobs? I’m betting he can rehabilitate somewhat—after all, it was just a few years ago he was integral to the Suns’ Finals run.

✔ Trae Young 🏀 - Perhaps my least favorite player in the NBA, but the Hawks have done a tremendous job of building around the worst defensive player maybe ever (Zach Lowe once compared his defense to a piece of tissue paper floating around the perimeter). Now, they have plenty of lengthy defenders around him and players with upside (plus Kennard as a tremendous shooter). If he can keep a good shooting/passing balance (he did a good job last year) on a team that wins 50 games, I think the hobby will take note and this downward trend could reverse.

❌ Damian Lillard 🏀 - I think it’s fire sale time, unless you’re okay with a multi-year window. But even then, he’ll be an old, no-defense guard coming off an Achilles tear. Can he be a 6th man at that point? I just don’t see his price bouncing back, and there’s not a huge nostalgia factor either for a guy who was never a top-5 guy at any point. I’d consider offloading now before he’s completely off the radar a few months from now.

❌ LaMelo Ball 🏀 It might not be “panic sell” time yet, but I’m not far away here. The Hornets are a mess, and I think another year where they stink is going to start impacting LaMelo dramatically from a historical perspective. At least he’s a popular player so he’s retained some value, but I’d start eyeing moving away from him if you can sell reasonably high.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Jordan Auto for $2.5 mill - “The price tag made it the third most expensive Jordan card sale publicly known and the most expensive Jordan rookie card sale.” Man, for being a stingy signer and it being on the most iconic card ever? I would’ve thought this would have surpassed the ‘03 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection 1/1 Logoman card.

+ Panini Face Plant - “The Dutch auction for Panini America’s 2024 Rookie Royalty WNBA set ended Monday at the floor of $3,000 per box. Boxes of Rookie Royalty, which contained just two cards, started at a ceiling of $30,000. The price for hobby boxes dropped every five minutes until the auction ended.” Did Panini really think they’d be able to sell 2 cards for $30k… even if one is a guaranteed auto of Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese?

+ Beckett’s Hot & Not - With news a bit light this week, here’s Beckett’s list of players that are doing well and some that…aren’t. I love that Kirk Cousins is on the cold list. He should be on the Dead and Buried list.

How To Pick the Best Sports Cards to Invest In (2025)

Today I’ll show you a few of the cards I’ve personally invested in recently….

But more than that, I’ll show you how I decide which cards to invest in! It’s different for everyone, but I’ll show you how to pick based on your specific goals, budget, and time frame. [KEEP READING]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.