Will Modern Cards Go to Zero?

I’ve been thinking a lot about the hype cycles in sports cards. For example, will the “new card bump” ever go away? Will there always be people who get suckered into paying huge prices right after cards are released?

Here’s Wemby’s PSA 10 Prizm rookie pricing chart:

Remember, when a card sells that high, someone had to buy it! In other words, there are people with $400 to burn who bought a PSA 10 Wemby right after it came out.

Don’t they realize they could wait a few months and buy it at ¼ the price? Who are these people that spend that much $$ without understanding the market a little bit more?

And then that leads me to think:

Are all modern cards overvalued, leading to a world where vintage is the only thing that holds value?

I understand that people are excited about Wemby. He’s new. He’s incredible. He might end up being the GOAT. But it’s MORE likely he’s just a very good player that isn’t a top-30 player all-time.

Would You Rather… Modern vs Vintage Edition

There’s no more hype around Joe Montana. He’s one of the best ever, and that’s not changing. But people pay through the nose hoping they can find someone with a sliver of a chance of being as good as Joe Montana.

In other words, most of the money in the hobby goes towards gambling on potential.

Joe Montana has basically ONE rookie card: the 1981 Topps. There are about 12k total graded either a PSA 8, 9, or 10.

Jayden Daniels? There are already over 11k graded Prizm base cards for Jayden in PSA’s pop report…and those haven’t even been out a year! Plus, there are literally hundreds (thousands?) of other Jayden cards out there.

But here’s how I look at it:

In 20 years, when he starts to be forgotten, and the rising generation is focused on the new crop, is there still going to be a real market for him?

The only real chance of that is if he turns into one of the GOATs. What are the odds of that? 2%? Otherwise, his cards are going to drop over the next 20 years, and probably pretty fast.

Is Josh Allen going to have a better career than John Elway? Or close to it?

Is Dylan Crews going to be better than Albert Pujols?

Is Wemby going to be better than Tim Duncan?

I know, it’s not always a “better than” conversation. It’s a “who’s more popular in the hobby.” I get that Kobe wasn’t as good as Magic, but he’s worth much more. But the entry into those conversations is to be an all-time great.

Right now, I can buy a 1996 Topps Kobe Bryant PSA 10 for $800 (pop count: 5,136).

A 2018 Luka Silver Prizm PSA 10 sells for $1,168 (pop count: 2,386).

Isn’t that kind of nuts? I know Luka’s incredible, but he’s never won a championship or an MVP. I know the pop count is lower on the Luka, but comparing their overall pop counts across the market, Luka has ridiculously more rookie cards. Plus, that Kobe Topps card is iconic.

So, while the hype train tells us to grab Luka, Kobe has the cemented legacy. Odds are, Luka will never touch Kobe’s hobby relevance, long term.

Yes, there are exceptions, of course. Mickey Mantle. Babe Ruth. Jim Brown. Michael Jordan. Others are valuable because they are so rare and/or old (like the Honus Wagner T206).

But in general, for long-term investments, I’d rather have a 1951 Bowman Willie Mays PSA 4 any day of the week than a Bowman Chrome Sapphire Dylan Crews Orange Auto /25 PSA 10 for about the same price.

“But it’s out of 25!” Yes, and he has tons of other #’d rookie autos. The collective pop count of high-end Dylan Crews cards blows the Willie Mays rookie pop count out of the water.

Wow, that got pretty ranty there! Any thoughts? Let me know what you think!

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy and how I see the market, and for entertainment purposes.

✔ Jackson Chourio ⚾ - As recently as April, his Bowman Chrome 1st Auto PSA 9 was consistently hitting $400. But lately, he’s been between $200 - $230 (minus a couple outliers). So why did he drop in half? His team’s solidly in the playoff race, and he has pretty good counting stats. Plus, he’s just 21! Seems like the kind of guy that could have a hot month, or even just a few good games in the playoffs and his pricing could jump significantly.

✔ Trevor Lawrence 🏈 - I’m still a (semi) believer. his PSA 10 Prizm doesn’t have a ton of volume and has consistently sold for under $60—roughly the same ballpark as Baker Mayfield. I get it, Baker has been the better QB the past two years, but Lawrence was a consensus generational prospect who went to an awful organization with bad teams and bad coaches. Are the Jaguars incredible? No, but they should be better, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Lawrence trends up. Can you believe he’s only 25? Plenty of room to grow, based on that card’s pricing history:

✔ Jared McCain 🏀 - I’m a bit torn on his long-term upside, but he was electric in his limited time as a rookie on the 76ers. Seeing how you can grab Prizm PSA 9s for like $10-$15, that’s a worthy gamble for a guy who can really score on a team where their top-end talent rarely plays.

✔ Anthony Davis 🏀 - His PSA 9 Prizm pricing is pretty all over the place, but it’s currently down from some recent peaks. I believe in this team, even with Kyrie missing some time. With Flagg bringing a ton of attention to Dallas, I think there will be some “oh yeah, AD is AWESOME.” Bleacher Report just named him the 45th best player of all time.

❌ Cal Raleigh ⚾ - Of course, I mentioned selling him last week, and then he goes and wins the home run derby! Well, if you didn’t sell him, it feels like a pretty good time right now. But what do I know? He’ll probably hit 70 home runs and win World Series MVP.

❌ Lamar Jackson 🏈 - I’m showing my risk-averse nature here. As I mentioned in the top section of the newsletter, most players just don’t become GOATs and eventually lose pricing. Lamar is really freaking good, but what are the odds he wins a Super Bowl next year? Pretty darn low, considering how many great teams there are. It’s the offseason, but his pricing has been climbing recently. You could sell now, or wait to see if it climbs more when the season approaches.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Public Service Announcement - “PSA has…a 43% overall gem rate on 8.9 million cards graded through the first half of 2025.” I suppose I assumed it would be lower, but the hobby is getting smarter about sending in only the best cards. Or, grading companies like to grade easy to get more collectors to send in cards 🤔

+ Real Life > Cardboard - “When 11-year-old Ethan Morales logged onto his computer to list his most prized possession—a rookie card autographed by rising star Paul Skenes—he never imagined the world would take notice. The Los Angeles fifth grader explained in his eBay description that his family was scrambling to meet unexpected medical bills, so he chose to part with this rare collectible. What followed was nothing short of a viral sensation.” Great story, but the cynical side of me wonders if this leads to others posting made-up stories to get attention on their listings.

+ No Cal Do - "As the [Topps Chrome] checklist was released, it was discovered…that Seattle Mariners catcher Cal raleigh was left off the list and will not have a card in the 2025 product at the moment.” With their MVP buyback program, you better believe Topps is hoping Aaron Judge doesn’t get injured, or they’ll be in real trouble with a winner not in the set.

+ Bronny’s Hilarious Patch Card - A picture is worth a thousand words…or just one in this case:

How Do I Ship Trading Cards Safely? My 3 Foolproof Methods

So you’re getting into the card-flipping game…or you’re just looking to sell off that old collection to go buy something fun! You’re thinking of listing on eBay, sending cards in to get graded…or whatever the reason…but you’re wondering how to ship your cards! [KEEP READING…]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.