If I Had $20k to Invest in the Hobby, Here’s What I’d Do

This was a fun thought exercise that helped me decide what I want out of the hobby. For example, ripping boxes is fun, but it doesn’t actually get me closer to my long-term goals.

I’m acting as if this $20k is purely for investment purposes, but you’ll notice some of my Lakers, Dodgers, & Broncos bias creeping in (I can’t help it). It’s also a valuable lesson to invest in what you know best.

Let’s divide these up into a few different categories:

1. 401(k) Cards ($9k)

This is what I call cards that are all-but-guaranteed to keep going up. These are cemented hobby GOATs that will always have collectors. The forever holds.

• Kobe Bryant 2016-17 National Treasures Auto #/25 ($1,600) - I wanted an auto, as they consistently rise in value (and probably always will). I love getting a #’d one here in a great brand at this price. Plus, this would fit my auto PC from the top 75 NBA players.

• Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Chrome PSA 9 ($2,200) - The GOAT’s rookie year, quality brand, in a high grade.

• Mickey Mantle 1953 Topps SGC 1 ($1,800) - You can’t go wrong owning the Mick, and I love SGC for vintage cards. He’s not fading into obscurity anytime soon.

• Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer PSA 4 ($3,500) - Basically, just getting the highest graded one I can with the remaining budget. Nothing else needs to be said about the most iconic card in basketball.

2. Medium to Long Term Investments ($6k)

These are the guys I’m taking a longer view on. Still some possible risk, but I’m eyeing a window of about 6 months to 2 years for flips.

These guys fall into different categories: some are already superstars, some are on the verge, and others are hopefully on their way. And honestly, these first two are likely to turn into 401(k)-type cards. I just don’t like to define them that way yet, as their careers aren’t done and there’s still some risk (no matter how small).

• Shohei Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome Pitching Refractor PSA 10 ($800) - He’s as good as he’s ever been—with pitching on the horizon—and plays on the best team. The Japanese market is growing steadily. Could he end with 5 MVPs and a few more rings? I wanted an auto, but they’re stupid expensive.

• Aaron Judge 2017 Topps Chrome Catching Refractor PSA 10 ($500) - This era is going to be defined by two of the best players of all time, and luckily, they play for the most popular franchises! He’s somehow getting better and might end up a top-5 hitter ever.

• Cade Cunningham 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ($450) - This card’s already down from around $700-$800 earlier in the playoffs. He’s a top-10ish player next year, and the Pistons are arrow-pointing-up.

• Anthony Edwards 2020-21 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ($750) - Pricing has dropped since the playoffs ended, but has legitimate scoring champ/MVP upside. He could be the most popular player in the game in 2-3 years.

• Amen Thompson 2023-24 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ($240) - Best athlete in the league, and advanced stats already paint him as one of the top-20 most impactful players. Let’s see the Rockets build around him.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018-19 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ($1,200) - Is there a world where 5 years from now he has 3-4 championships with 2-3 MVPs? Where does that put him on the all-time list?

• Drake Maye 2024 Silver Prizm PSA 10 ($450) - Considering his supporting cast, he had a stellar rookie year. With new coaching, a better line, and actual pass-catching options, we might see a real ascension here. He’s about half the price of Jayden Daniels, so I think Maye has the better pricing upside.

• Joe Burrow 2020 Silver Prizm PSA 10 ($1,500) - One of the best statistical seasons in NFL history went mostly unnoticed because his team wasn’t winning. This card specifically has dropped about $500 since last summer.

3. Sealed Wax ($4k)

The reality is I have a hard time holding sealed wax, but it’s one of the better investments if the rookie class is strong and the product holds its value. I’m going to stick to Prizm and Topps Chrome here.

• 2020 Panini Prizm Football Hobby Box ($1,800) - Joe Burrow is already a superstar, Hurts has a Super Bowl MVP, Herbert and Love play on very good teams (Herbert especially has MVP potential), and even Tua has had a decent run. If even one of them turn into an all-timer (Burrow has the best chance of winning 1-2 MVPs and Super Bowls), this box just keeps going up.

• 2018 Topps Chrome Baseball Hobby Box ($2,000) - Ohtani and Acuna Jr. rookies in the same box? Yes, please. I was tempted to go for the Jumbo version (5 autos instead of 2), but that adds another $1.5k to the price.

I love 2018 Prizm for basketball, but at $4k+, I decided those were out of my range.

4. Short-Term Flips ($1k)

If you follow weekly, you’ll notice I’ve covered a lot of these already in previous buy/sell sections! These are the guys that I’m looking to flip within the next 6 months. I prefer to target players who carry longer-term upside in case a selling window doesn’t open soon.

I like having a bit less money tied up here because these cards are in and out of my collection faster. The short-term nature makes these a bit riskier, but I’m hoping for 30%+ increases before the end of the year.

I’m also not going to list specific cards here, just that I’d sprinkle about $1k across these players.

• Justin Herbert - I don’t need him to be an MVP candidate at the end of the year, but just to be in the convo for the first 5-7 weeks. A relatively easy schedule to start could have them at 5-2 or 6-1, if they’re as good as I think they can be.

• Bo Nix - After leading his team to the playoffs, a couple of good games to start the season could see his pricing take off. I’m looking for him to have a good start against two bad teams (Titans and Colts) and hope that’s a good window to sell.

• Andy Pages - I know, he’s not even a top-5 player on his team, but I’m not looking for huge long-term potential. He’s on pace for almost MVP-type WAR. I just need him to keep stacking up numbers (especially in the playoffs) and see his pricing increase from the current lows.

• Juan Soto - Expectations are high, to say the least. That’s why his pricing is down by half almost across the board, but he always bounces back. I think he’s overrated as an all-time type guy, but any hot streak could see his pricing jump.

• Paolo Banchero - He could be a 27 PPG guy on an ascending Magic team that could fight for a 3 seed (barring health). I look to him to come out on fire, and then I can decide to flip or hold longer.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo - This is a bet that the Bucks trade him to a better team. I think there’s an instant bump with a chance to flip. Like, I’d have the card listed ASAP at a price I want to sell.

• Jared McCain - May have been the best rookie last season in limited games (due to injury). Buy now and sell early in the season when he reminds people he’s pretty darn good.

Whew! That was fun. You can probably tell I’m not a big-risk kinda guy, but I think the above gives me a solid foundation of long-term growth but enough short-term upside as well.

My biggest hesitation would be to shift more dollars towards short-term holds, but what do you think? How would you go about this?

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Embarrassing Auto…or Fake? - Frank Gore Jr. is being ridiculed for his “elementary school” auto, but he claims that it’s "100 percent fake" and the collector who posted it should “reach out to me and I'll get you a real autograph." Things get awkward when you do a search on eBay and find dozens of similar autos, all on Topps cards that certify the auto. Whoops.

+ They Paid a (Halibur)ton for That - “A 2020-21 Panini Prizm Black 1-of-1 Gold Vinyl Tyrese Haliburton rookie card sold for $119,560.” He’s approaching superstar status—both on the court and in the hobby. He’s even getting bad newsletter writers to come up with awful headline puns using his name!

+ Curry’s First 3-Point Jersey - “Wearing a blue Warriors road jersey, the confident youngster from Davidson would make the first of an astonishing 4,000+ three-point baskets…Now, that same jersey is on the auction block where it’s expected to sell for more than $1 million.” Jerseys have always been a thing, but so many fetch $1M plus these days.

+ Funniest Inscription Ever? - Gunnar Henderson trolled a teammate by adding an inscription of “Cowser is afraid of shrimp” on one of his auto cards. I love that this now exists as a real thing that’s in someone’s collection. Click the link just to see the card—it’s worth it.

How to Quickly Sell Your 90s Sports Cards For the Most Profit

So you’ve unearthed those old sports cards you collected as a kid. It’s fun, right?

When I did it, I had a blast remembering the endless hours I spent sifting through those cards, reading the backs of them for fun. I remembered players I hadn’t thought about in a while (Nick Van Exel, anyone?). I remember trading with my friends, and how I used to save up my allowance to buy packs. [Continue Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.