How to Tune Out the Hype and Find Value

With the week off before the Super Bowl, let’s talk about a core part of collecting. Whether you’re a flipper or just adding cool cards to your collection, you must stay away from the noise, or you’ll overpay almost every time.

It’s probably the #1 rookie mistake, and I fell for it. I remember coming back into the hobby and getting really excited for LaMelo Ball. I bought an unlicensed Prizm rookie right when it was released for $25. Probably not worth $1 today.

I wish that were my only misfire, but it’s also a lesson that I learned quickly by experiencing it myself.

What Does Hype Look Like?

In my experience, when everyone starts talking about a player, it’s almost always too late to buy in at a good price.

But… it’s so much fun to be part of the conversation and be active in the hobby. It’s fun to go out right now and say “BAM! Just picked up this sick Drake Maye card!”

Or when Wemby cards first came out, it was hard not to feel left out, as everyone seemed to be posting them on Facebook or IG.

Hype also shows up as:

• Brand new releases (First few weeks after Prizm or Topps Chrome comes out)

• Top rookies (Cooper Flagg)

• Player gets traded to a bigger market and/or better team (Luka, Shohei)

• All the talk shows, ESPN articles, podcasts, etc., are constantly talking about a player (Maye, Shohei is always talked about, and even Giannis right now is spiking because he might get traded to a contender, and it’s all anyone is talking about)

Why Invest in “Quiet” Cards

Real value is often boring. You want to buy cards when the hobby is “quiet” about the player. There’s a reason that buying in the offseason is often the best way to go.

Sure, it’s less fun. There isn’t as much excitement about picking up an Aaron Judge card right now, because you can’t even see him play a game for a while.

Here are a few rules of thumb:

• The offseason or “dog days” of a season are often great buying times (Juan Soto - although MLB prices are starting to move with Topps Series 1 releasing)

• Monitor prices while a player is injured (Tatum, Haliburton)

• Don’t purchase singles from newly-released products. Wait 6 months for the hype to die down. (I sold 2 raw Donruss Mac Jones for $66 right after release. Those cards dropped to almost nothing in less than a year.)

• Keep an eye on players that are starting to break out, but you don’t think the hobby is looking at closely enough (Deni Avdija - he’s been going up, but still not priced like the star he is)

• Any factors that could lead to a player making a leap. I love this for football. Could be a team that’s going to have a super easy schedule, or a team gets a new coach/coordinator (Herbert with new OC Mike McDaniel).

Of course, like I always say, context matters. If someone is low because they’re always injured, then I stay away. If a good player is on a perennially bad team, it’s unlikely things will change much in the near future. There has to be a good reason that the player will get better, win more games, or get more good media attention before I’m willing to jump in.

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔️ Justin Herbert 🏈 - As mentioned above, I think Herbert is in a great spot. His pricing spiked in October when the offense looked great. The Chargers tailed off, but next year they’ll get their star linemen back and have a top-notch play-caller joining the coaching staff. $50 for a Prizm PSA 10 is a steal for someone with his talent.

✔️ Austin Reaves 🏀 - I’ve been keeping an eye on him for some time, and I think it’s ludicrous that his rookie Silver Prizms can be had for $20 - $25. He’s one of the best offensive players in the NBA, and he’s on the most popular team. Luka and LeBron suck up all the attention, but I’m willing to buy him and see if he spikes with a good run to end the season. At worst, next year, he should clearly be the #2 with LeBron potentially gone (or aging out of stardom).

✔️ Shohei Ohtani ⚾ - I know his prices are sky-high, but hear me out on this one. What are the odds that he goes down as the best player ever? At this point, it seems like a pretty darn good shot, actually. Some already think he is. So, what if 5 years from now, he’s won 3 more MVPs and 2 more World Series awards, and has been a good-to-great pitcher that whole time? His current pricing will look like a steal. Plus, with the emerging Japanese market, Ohtani might go down as the most popular non-Jordan athlete ever. This is more of a “401(k)” type investment than a quick flip.

❌ Darnold & Maye 🏈 - I talked about this last week, but they’re both continuing to skyrocket. Gains after a Super Bowl win aren’t guaranteed—in fact, there have been examples of players winning a championship without having any spike, or they have a quick bump for a few days and then fall back down. If Maye wins, I bet it would be more of a sustained jump, but it’s too unpredictable for me. I’d lock in the massive gains now and take advantage of a hobby that’s super excited for the big game.

❌ Matthew Stafford 🏈 - He’s dropped a bit since elimination, but he’s still WAY up since November (specifically looking at his Topps Throwing PSA 10 rookie). I just think it’s going to be tough for him to hit these highs again. If he retires, there’s no more Super Bowls coming his way. Even if he keeps playing, it’s hard for teams to get that far in the playoffs, plus he’s got concerning back issues. Lock in the profit, I say.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Panini v Fanatics - Good article covering the basics of “What License Shifts Mean for Your 2026 Card Collection.” In short, Topps products will be licensed for the NFL starting in April, while Panini shifts to unlicensed cards without logos or team names.

+ Topps Baseball Rookies - Here’s “An Early Look At The Top 2026 Topps Series 1 Rookies to Collect.” The author breaks it down by tiers, with only Caglianone and Anthony in Tier 1, followed by mostly pitching prospects (which isn’t ideal). Two big hitters at the top will drive value, though.

+ Down by the eBay - “eBay announced it will begin utilizing the Card Ladder Index to support its price guide starting Wednesday.” I haven’t had a chance to dig into what it looks like in practice, but I love Card Ladder and use it daily. Now, if it’s integrated into eBay, it might streamline research for card flippers (or anyone looking to buy/sell at good prices). Can’t wait to see how this works.

The Complete Guide to Looking Up Baseball Card Values

Whether you’re pulling out your old stash of cards, or just getting into opening packs, the obvious question you’ll have is how do you look up baseball cards values!

When looking up the value of your baseball cards, always find comparable sold cards, not estimated values. With eBay being by far the largest marketplace for sports cards, that’s going to be your best source for finding values…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.