Once again, I learned my lesson about selling new products fast. I pulled a Brian Thomas Jr. Silver Prizm. They were selling for about $34, so Iisted at $36. I got an offer for $31 and I rejected it. Then…I kind of forgot about the card and sold it today (just two weeks later) for $16. 🤦‍♂️ The lesson? Rip & flip those brand-new releases!

- Cameron

NBA Rookies Hobby Watch

Now that the All-Star break is past, let’s talk about the rookies poised to rise or fall. There’s almost no pricing available for these guys with 2024-25 sets so new—so I won’t be referring to pricing, more just an overall stock check.

I wouldn’t recommend going out and acquiring these guys until product has been out for a bit—they always come out more expensive and drop like a rock.

Hold for Next Year

🏀 Jared McCain

In case you forgot, the 16th pick in the draft was the runaway Rookie of the Year until he tore his meniscus. With 15.3 points in just 27 minutes per night (with terrific efficiency!), he’s clearly an NBA player. At only 20 years old, there’s a chance he develops into a star.

🏀 Reed Sheppard

It’s strange for the 3rd pick to be this buried, but rarely are they on a team this deep and talented. I think he will get more run next year and show us some stuff.

🏀 Nikola Topic

The Thunder picked him 12th even though they knew he’d miss the season. Healthy, he would’ve gone higher. I trust the Thunder to draft well, so this guy could be a very good hold.

Figuring Things Out

🏀 Kel’el Ware

Since averaging 7 minutes per game in November, his time has increased each month and now gets almost 28 minutes per game! In fact, he was the Rookie of the Year favorite at one point, and now sits in second place. He’s entrenched as the starter, but the Heat likely aren’t going anywhere. As a card collector, I just want to see him continue to get run and put up better and better numbers.

🏀 Zaccharie Risacher

He’s the classic “gets better as the season goes along” type of rookie. He’s big, he’s long, and he just seems to get “it.” It’s doubtful he’ll be a superstar (he averages almost no rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks), but it wouldn’t be shocking if he averages 15+ points next month and his stock goes up.

🏀 Stephon Castle

Now, we’re to my favorite player in the draft. He’s a hand-in-glove fit on a Spurs team that’s going to be contending very soon. He’s a tremendous defender and competitor with handles and scoring ability. I see him as a fixture next to De’Aaron Fox for many years, and could eventually be a better overall player (if not scorer). What he showed us on All-Star Weekend wasn’t nothing, either.

🏀 Matas Buzelis

Basically overnight, the Bull started playing him (the Lavine trade certainly helped). His minutes doubled, and he’s now got 8 straight double-digit scoring games. As recently as 2023, he was projected as the #1 pick in the draft. Don’t sleep.

Make Noise in the Playoffs

🏀 Zach Edey

Sure, it’s possible that he gets played off the floor a bit in the playoffs. But as of now, he starts on a team that’s likely to win at least one series in the playoffs! I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few dominant stretches (like 12 points in a quarter) and his pricing jumps.

🏀 Jaylen Wells

It’s absolutely stunning that the #2 seed in the ultra-competitive west starts not one, but two rookies… and one was the 39th pick in the draft!

If you haven’t followed closely, this guy was playing on Division II team just two years ago…and now he’s consistently guarding the top perimeter option while scoring over 11 points per game on good efficiency. He’s the type of guy you root for.

Arrow Pointing Down

🏀 Dalton Knecht

That magical November run that saw him score over 20 points 4 times in 7 games is long in the rearview. His minutes have dropped ever since. Yes, he’s a good shooter, but teams with Luka and LeBron need defensive-minded role players around them…and that’s not Knecht. I could see the Lakers doing well in the playoffs and Knecht’s minutes going down to almost zero.

🏀 Alex Sarr

This is a strange one, but it’s just a gut feeling I have. He’s an ultra-athletic big that’s just too tentative for me. He’s shooting UNDER 40%, which is the reddest of red flags for me. He can’t make threes or free throws, and he’s only putting up decent stats because he’s on a horrific team that gives him playing time.

Buy / Sell Opportunities

✔ Cody Bellinger ⚾ - What a strange career he’s had! At just 23 year old, he wins MVP… and hasn’t been an All-Star since! Two years ago, he had 4.4 WAR, so it’s not like those glory days are behind him. He doesn’t have to be an MVP, but an impactful season while wearing Yankee pinstripes can only help his value.

✔ Jalen Williams 🏀 - For the #2 on the team with the best regular season point differential of all time, he slides under the radar. He’s averaging 21-5-5 while playing good defense. Teams this good usually win the championship, and a long playoff run will help him tremendously. His Player Index is much lower than it was a few months back, too:

✔ Jamal Murray 🏀 - The story for the first part of the season pegged him as a player whose best days were behind him. Well, he dropped 55 points in a game last week and is averaging over 22 points and 6 assists since the calendar turned to 2025. The Nuggets are in championship form and people will remember that Murray’s a playoff killer.

✔Ja Morant 🏀 - I’m not sure most people understand that the Grizzlies are tied for the 4th best record in the entire NBA! While Jaren Jackson has rightly been labeled their best player this season, don’t forget about this dude. His numbers are down, but it’s only because of minutes. He’s still averaging 26 points and 9 assists per-36, and he’ll have some jaw-dropping playoff moments on a team likely to advance.

❌ Jalen Hurts 🏈 - I mentioned this last week, but to reiterate, here’s his Player Index:

He’s so high right now, but I don’t see him as a long-term star. Just a solid player with a tremendous supporting cast. Sell, sell, sell.

❌ Freddie Freeman ⚾ - Right now, his PSA 10 Topps rookie card is selling about 50% higher than last September. Crazy, right? I know he had a big World Series that gave him a (deserved) boost. But man, isn’t he kind of the odd man out on this loaded Dodgers squad? He seriously might be the 5th or 6th best player on his own team next year. I can’t see those high prices continuing for him.

New Releases

+ 2024 Panini Spectra Football (February 21 | $880) - I always thought of Spectra as just okay, especially for this season. With much of its value coming from the 4 autos per box, the allure is diminished with no Daniels, Williams, Maye, or Nix. The cards look nice and there’s plenty of numbered parallels, but it’s just not for me.

+ 2024 Panini Illusions Football (February 26 | $350) - I know Illusions is considered lower tier, but I’d much rather grab a box of this over Spectra at less than half the price. You’ll get 3 autos, 2 memorabilia, and 5 numbered cards per box. Fun rip at a good price for football cards.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.