A few weeks ago, I bought 3 NFL Prizm blasters, and my 6-year-old son now asks me EVERY SINGLE DAY when we’re going to buy more cards to open. I think he’s getting hooked, even if he can’t name a single player and only roots for the team that’s winning when we watch sports 🤣. I couldn’t be happier.

- Cameron

Super Bowl Hobby Fallout

Jalen Hurts…Hobby Star?

You already know what happened in the game. Mahomes played the worst game of his career, besieged by the Eagles front four.

But what surprised a lot of people (and proved me waaaaay wrong) was Jalen Hurts finishing on perhaps his best game of the season. I went on record as a hobby skeptic, with his first four career playoff wins coming on games where he barely passed the ball.

Then, of course, his last two games this year were dominant performances, especially on the Super Bowl stage. He flipped the narrative that everything started with Barkley and Hurts essentially rode his coattails.

Well, Barkley had his worst game of the season and they still blew the doors off the Chiefs.

So, what does that look like for Hurts from a hobby perspective?

Here’s his Card Ladder Player Index:

Of course, we saw the incredible rise throughout the playoffs…but I didn’t expect a Super Bowl bump like this—because I didn’t expect him to play like this.

So, what do you do with Hurts cards?

Sell, baby sell!

His pricing skyrocketed off the high of his last two games, but inevitably, people will remember that the Eagles have a top-5 O-Line, D-Line, Running Back, and Wide Receiver tandem.

They’ll remember that he doesn’t put up big regular season stats and is a long shot to win an MVP in a league with Allen, Jackson, Burrow, and Mahomes.

Everyone will remember that he’s probably not a top-10 QB, but just happens to play on the most loaded roster in football. He’s probably not a Hall of Fame QB unless he plays on teams so good that he happens to win a few more Super Bowls.

Sell, before everyone remembers those things.

Saquon Mania

Here’s Saquon’s player index:

People clearly haven’t forgotten how awesome he is, despite a poor Super Bowl. My prediction that people have been itching to go hobby nuts over him has played out.

So, if you have him, what do you do?

Here’s my guess:

Like Hurts, people will remember the narrative. He’s a running back, who could have a complete drop-off at any time. RBs with 436 carries in a season don’t have a great track record of staying healthy.

Terrell Davis had the best back-to-back stretch for a RB ever…and then he was injured and his career over well before 30.

The hobby will start to remember how they don’t like to collect RBs and they rarely hold value.

Here’s what I think:

1. His pricing is going to drop significantly in the offseason as people remember “oh yeah, he’s a running back.”

2. He comes back next year and puts up another great season. As long as Hurts is a running threat and their O-line is spectacular, look to Barkley to put up staggering numbers.

3. His pricing bounces back in a huge way, much like it did this year.

If you have some nice cards of his, it’s a great time to sell and buy back in a couple of months.

Patrick Mahomes: Status Quo

Here’s how you know you have an incredible legacy despite playing the worst game of your career on the biggest stage:

Buy / Sell Opportunities

✔ Justin Herbert 🏈 - This guy gets forgotten as one of the premier QBs in the league because he’s never been on a team that gives him the personnel along with a green light to let it rip. Harbaugh will figure it out and let Herbert cook at some point, along with building a winner. Here’s Herbert’s Player Index…I think it’s time to buy:

✔ Shohei Ohtani ⚾ - His PSA 10 Topps Chrome “Pitching” card peaked around the World Series at $250, but he’s now back down to around $200. He’s playing on one of the most stacked teams of all time, and (I can’t emphasize this enough)… he’s pitching again! So, the guy who had one of the best seasons behind the plate (and on the base paths) ever, is probably going to be a top-10 pitcher this season to boot. Stock up while his prices are lower than they have been.

✔ Austin Reaves 🏀 - This one could go either way, but I suspect that most people think he’s going to drop because Luka’s going to suck up all the attention.

But here’s the thing: his team is better than ever, so they should go further in the playoffs. He’s a legit playoff killer, and he’s now going to get a ton of open looks with LeBron and Luka around.

Plus, he’s been playing lights out lately and is now averaging 19 points and 6 assists on the highest-profile team in the league. I think the Lakers keep winning and make it a few rounds deep, with Reaves having a few awesome games to bump his pricing.

❌ De’Aaron Fox 🏀 - So, I had him on my buy list last week, and then this happened to his PSA 10 Silver Prizms:

It’s nearly doubled in price! I will admit he’s in a much better situation for the long term, but the team isn’t amazing yet. If I had this card (or other nice Fox cards), I’d sell it yesterday, and then buy back over the summer when the hype dies down and the Spurs have missed the playoffs.

❌ Luka Doncic 🏀 Same thing as Fox! We saw a massive increase in pricing, and it’s starting to drop back down:

You can still sell his Prizm Silver PSA 10 for about $300 more than you could a week ago. It’s a bit trickier with Doncic because he’s obviously a higher caliber player than Fox and he’s playing on a better team. His stats might take a hit, but he’s a playoff killer.

I’d sell now, but unlike Fox, I’d look to scoop it back up sooner, like March-April, before the playoffs start.

❌ Hurts & Saquon 🏈 - Just to reiterate what I said earlier: both have had nice Super Bowl bumps, so it’s a good time to move off them. Especially before people remember that Hurts isn’t a top-10 QB and that Saquon is “just” a running back.

New Releases

+ 2024-25 Panini Prizm Basketball (February 14 | $900) Too me, this is Meh, with a capital M. The rookies on the front are Reed Sheppard and Matas Buzelis, who are averaging 3.5 points and 6.2 points. The rookie class stinks, so to pay $900 for guys who are unlikely to be more than role players to me isn’t a good use of money. Go buy some sweet Wemby cards instead.

+ 2024 Topps Chrome Football (February 19 | $475) - I’m excited for this as Topps Chrome has autos that Panini doesn’t, including Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Bo Nix and Caleb Williams. Even though it’s unlicensed, I think these do well because the hobby is excited for Topps Chrome football to come back! Look for 2 autos, 12 refractors, 9 inserts, and 4 numbered cards per box. That sounds like a TON of fun to rip!

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.