Buying & Selling Cycles

Last week, I talked about avoiding hype and to focus on buying when the market is “quiet” about certain players.

Of course, there’s a difference between quiet and irrelevant. For example, the market around Trae Young is quiet because he’s irrelevant. On the other hand, the market is quiet on Donovan Mitchell, but the Cavs have a real chance to make some noise soon.

When to Buy & Sell

While there are definitely no hard and fast rules for when to buy a player, there’s a general rule of thumb that often works:

Buy in the offseason, sell during the season. It’s the most consistent time that relevant players have “quiet” hobby hype because they’re not playing.

Even if you’re not a flipper, you still want to get great deals on your cards, right? Everyone would rather spend $60 on a card than $90.

It’s just that few are patient enough to do this. It’s more fun for a Pats fan to buy Drake Maye right before the Super Bowl starts… but you’re buying in at a crazy high and taking the risk that this happens:

If you can be patient and wait out the “exciting” times, you’ll be ahead of 95% of the hobby.

It’s also important to mention that there are always unicorns. For example, Shohei is so popular that his price just kept skyrocketing throughout the offseason. Mahomes had his worst season, yet pricing stayed basically the same.

What Should You Be Doing Right Now?

I guess “should” is the wrong word… it’s a hobby, and you can collect however you want. But, if you’re looking to be the most financially responsible, here’s how I’d think about things:

⚾ Baseball - With Series 1 dropping and Spring Training almost here, the baseball market is starting to wake up. Prices usually don’t spike overnight — they just slowly climb as attention comes back.

If you’re buying, I’d rather do it in the next week or two. Once the games start and highlights hit, the better prices tend to dry up.

When I’m selling, I’m usually patient. I’ll wait to see if preseason buzz or a hot start gives me a bump. If not, you’re likely waiting for a strong stretch later in the year.

Baseball’s a long season — but timing still matters.

🏀 Basketball - The overall market has been trending up lately. Sure, some players slide if their team is clearly tanking or they get shipped to NBA Siberia. But for stars gearing up for a playoff push, prices have quietly moved higher.

Even injuries to guys like SGA, Luka, Jokic, and Giannis haven’t really hurt their markets. That tells you something. The hobby still believes in them long term.

That said, I’d be careful holding players who could fade out of relevance quickly. Giannis had a strange little spike recently, and with the Bucks looking rough and him possibly sitting more games, I’d rather sell into strength than hope it climbs again.

🏈 Football - Now that the season just wrapped up, you can probably still move some cards at solid prices. That window doesn’t stay open very long, though.

Over the next couple of months, I'll start checking back in on the cards I’ve been watching. Interest cools off, listings sit longer, and sellers get more flexible.

Don’t be afraid to send offers on eBay. If a card has been sitting for a while, there’s a good chance the seller would rather take a reasonable deal than keep waiting.

This is usually when patience pays off.

Buy/Sell Targets (NFL Offseason)

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

Based on what I discussed in the previous section, I want to point out NFL players that I’m keeping an eye on in the offseason. These aren’t “go buy right now!” guys, but rather “check on pricing every few days.”

✔️ Joe Burrow - It seems like his roster is perpetually going to be fatally flawed, but consensus is that he’s still one of the guys at QB. With great receivers, he’s a threat to break records (if healthy) because they always throw. Pricing hasn’t recovered from where it was even just last year.

✔️ Drake Maye - How far is he going to drop? He looked awful for most of the playoffs (of course, that was right after I said he “almost never has a bad game”). The hobby was excited to anoint him the next GOAT, but that has to wait. I suspect his pricing will still have a high floor, but it’s worth monitoring.

✔️ Justin Herbert - I’m so high on him. He hasn’t been great in the playoffs (understatement), but he has the talent and team to contend for MVP. I love that he has Mike McDaniel as his OC. $40 is such a low price for his PSA 10 Prizm.

✔️ Lamar Jackson - I doubt he’ll spike with a good season next year, but the Ravens are still awesome. Lamar started the season on fire, but then cooled off after the injury. If he’s back to being Lamar, I bet we’ll see a steady incline in pricing for him, perhaps even before the season starts. Many of his cards are down 25%+ since midseason, so he might be a good “buy” candidate right now.

✔️ Brock Purdy - If he plays a full season, it’s likely he’ll put up great stats and win a ton of games. When he returned from injury this past season, his PSA 10 Prizm jumped from $45 (November) to around $80 (January). If he drops in the offseason, I’d go grab him.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Public Service Announcement - The big news out of the grading world is that “PSA is raising prices on several lower-tier grading services and extending estimated turnaround times for new submissions.” With BGS and SGC now under the same umbrella as PSA (and SGC basically killed off), what’s to stop them from raising prices? Demand will only go up as the hobby grows.

+ Know Your Variations - In the past, some collectors have had trouble identifying image variations out of Topps. They’ve made them easier to find, but here’s a good primer on what to look for and pack odds.

+ KONNNNN! - Kon Knueppel has a new Topps NOW card commemorating “that he is the first rookie of the 2025-26 class to reach 1,000 career points.” He’s a stud, and all the more impressive that he did this with Cooper Flagg playing superstar basketball lately.

How Do I Ship Trading Cards Safely? My 3 Foolproof Methods

In order to ship your trading cards safely, it depends on the value of the card and how many you’re shipping! For cheap cards (under $5), I ship in a top loader, team bag, and a plain white envelope. For more expensive cards, I put in a bubble wrap pouch and then inside a bubble mailer…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.