NBA Hobby Breakdown

Since we’re about 1/3rd of the way through the NBA season, let’s take stock of what’s going on!

I’ll hit a number of noteworthy players—especially the ones who’ve taken big leaps and whether the card market has noticed or not.

(This will take the place of Buy/Sell because this section will have a ton of that kind of advice already)

Making the “Leap” (With Room to Grow)

These are the guys who’ve taken mega-leaps forward, most of whom are sure-fire All-Stars and potential All-NBA guys in the near future.

Honestly, I don’t think you can go wrong investing in any of these guys. Reaves is the oldest, but he also took the longest to develop. They all have time to get even better!

Austin Reaves - As a massive Lakers fan, I couldn’t be happier with how he’s played, especially in games where he’s been the lead guy. I don’t like how he’s relegated to third ballhandler with Luka and LeBron on the court. Either way, he’s a surefire all-star whose card market has yet to catch up (it’s starting to heat up).

Tyrese Maxey - It’s crazy to say…but could he be 1st All-NBA? The no-brainers are SGA, Luka, and Jokic. Giannis and Wemby are going to have a hard time hitting 65 games. Other challengers: Cade, Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards. Why not Maxey, averaging almost 32 a game? (I don’t think he’ll get there, but it’s a conversation that shows how much he’s improved).

Deni Avdija - He’s still so far under the radar! Averaging 26, 7, and 6, and has the nerd analysts in a tizzy. He leads the league in drives and is FOURTH in potential assists (his team can’t shoot or he’d have way more actual assists). At 24, he’s already a borderline franchise guy.

Alperen Sengun - He leveled up at the same time that his team did! As perhaps the best all-around player on a potential 2-seed, Sengun is a legit star who gets overshadowed by KD’s name (and still silky-smooth scoring) and the walking hype machine known as Amen Thompson. Averaging 24, 9, and 7, and might be an All-NBA guy this year.

Jalen Johnson - Trae Young gets all the name recognition, but it’s Jalen who’s clearly the better player at this point. He lost some momentum missing most of last year, so he fell off radars (plus, I think so many people are tired of Atlanta being a boring .500-ish team for so long). Averaging 23, 11, and 8, he’s the future of the Hawks. Go buy him.

Keyonte George - He’s the least sure thing of this group, partially because he’s on a flailing team and his stats might be a mirage. He put up okay stats last year, but he was so inefficient that no one believed him as a legit guy. Now, he’s skyrocketed to 24 points and 7 assists on good efficiency. Keeping an eye on the kid, as he just turned 22 and blasted out of nowhere.

The MVPs

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander - Having another stunningly good season by averaging the third most points per-36 in NBA history! He’s only played around half of his team’s 4th quarters because the Thunder are so good. I think he’s a great long-term investment. It’s possible we look up in 5 years, and he has 3-4 championships and 2-3 MVPs. That would put him solidly in the Top-10 players EVER…and he’d still only be 32. He and his team are just that good.

Nikola Jokic - He’s averaging a 30-point triple-double on probably the 2nd-best team in the NBA (and somehow not the MVP favorite because SGA is amazing!). His pricing has steadily been increasing for the past year, so he’s not really a quick-flip opportunity. If you think he’s going to go down as a top-6 player ever, then he’s always a great buy.

Luka Doncic - It’s insane that someone averaging 35, 9, and 9 on one of the best teams in the NBA is third in MVP odds… but that’s what’s going on here. I worry about his long-term pricing because he’s going to have a hard time winning a championship or an MVP award in the next few years. Jokic and SGA are just that good, and Wemby’s coming.

The Duds

Zion Williamson - He’s approaching the point where he’ll probably be traded to a desperate team that gives up almost nothing for him. He came in better shape this year and still can’t stay healthy. Firesale time if you have his cards.

Ja Morant - He’s oft injured and oft upset. He’s had poor behavior for a few years now. Wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole, in the hobby, or if I were another NBA team. Hobby star status is gone.

Jaren Jackson Jr. - This would’ve been a great year for him to step up and become an All-NBA candidate… and instead he’s taken a massive step back. Poor Memphis. I thought they had a great chance to be awesome with tons of depth and two stars…except they’ve been injured, and their stars just aren’t stars right now.

Lamelo Ball - It says a lot about Lamelo that the Hornets are more fun and playing better than they have in years…and it’s not because of Lamelo. He’s been injured—per usual—but in past years, he was still awesome when he played. His scoring and efficiency are way down, and I would start thinking of him as a sunk cost, both in the hobby and if I were running the Hornets. He’s dropped, but I don’t see him as a buy-low candidate.

Quick Hits

Giannis Antetokounmpo - Worth a flyer to see if he gets traded to a championship contender?

Cade Cunningham - Legit superstar on a 1-seed. The hobby doesn’t really see him that way yet.

Jayson Tatum - Didn’t think he’d be back anytime soon…but his team is better than expected and there’s a lot of smoke about a return this year. Market still down overall, but trending up.

All the Spurs - I’m in, 100% on all of their best guys. Harper and Castle look like long-term stars, Fox is an awesome sidekick to Wemby, and then, of course, Wemby himself. If you can get in on some of their cards at decent prices, I think these guys could challenge OKC as soon as next year.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ PSA Company Acquires Beckett - In a move that shakes up the hobby landscape, PSA’s parent company has purchased Beckett. They now own SGC, Beckett, and PSA. I don’t like this one bit, as PSA was already nearing a monopoly (at least in sports cards—CGC still does tons of non-sports). SGC has basically fallen off the map—will the same happen to Beckett? (I say yes)

+ Not a Negative Experience - Travis Rowe pulled a Mike Trout Topps Chrome negative refractor…and that got him back in the hobby. “Next thing you know, I was headed down a rabbit hole chasing all 300 cards.” I love these hobby purist stories—what brings them back into the hobby, chasing down cards by any means necessary, and enjoying the pursuit. Great story.

+ Vintage NBA to Chase - I’m a big believer that vintage is really going to take off. The hobby is set to grow by every prediction that I’ve read. With the growing number of collectors going after the same amount of cards, well, vintage can’t help but skyrocket. I look to baseball’s thriving vintage market and think we’ll eventually see something similar in football and basketball shake out in the next 5 - 10 years.

How to Organize Your Sports Cards in 11 Steps

Once you start getting heavy into card collecting, it’s amazing how fast the cards can pile up! Just a few weeks ago, I had a 12-box order show up on my birthday…I ripped those suckers but now there are STILL piles on my desk.

Whether you’re going through old shoe boxes, ordering lots of singles or (like me) ripping lots of cards, you’ve got to have an organization structure…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.