Newsletter 12/11

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving! I didn’t end up sending a newsletter because I was too busy getting ahead on my day job (I’m a freelance content strategist). And now the holidays are here. Last year for Christmas, I had my best pull ever…maybe I’ll top it this year?

- Cameron

Top-10 Quarterbacks, Regardless of Hobby Value

Let’s have some fun today. I’ll include some hobby notes for these players, but this ranking is purely based on who I’d pick to win 1 game if my life depended on it.

1. Josh Allen

On pace for: 4,032 yards, 29 TDs (+12 rushing), 13 INTs

If you need a big play, is there anyone else you trust more? If it’s 3rd-and-6, it just feels like he’s getting it done—either through standing tall in the pocket and delivering a strike, or taking off and running through someone.

I marked him as a sell last week, but mostly because his prices were at all-time highs, and it’s unlikely he wins MVP or the Super Bowl. Long-term, of course, he’s a stud.

2. Patrick Mahomes

On pace for: 4,444 yards, 29 TDs (+4 rushing), 13 INTs

I know, this isn’t the typical Mahomes season, but his team is so blah. I still trust him because of the track record. He doesn’t have the rushing stats of Allen, but he’s so dang smart with when he takes off that it’s an invaluable part of his game. If he were quarterbacking, say, the Rams, he’d be in the MVP conversation. Like the next guy on the list.

3. Matthew Stafford

On pace for: 4,386 yards, 46 TDs, 5 INTs

Those numbers are insane. I think he’ll win the MVP, partially because he’s gone up against much tougher competition than Drake Maye (the other MVP favorite). As someone who has a Super Bowl ring and now possibly an MVP, is his career being rewritten in his late 30s?

His hobby relevance was written off for so long because of those awful Detroit years. Makes you wonder if he’d been on a good team all along, would he be an all-time great?

He’s old enough that he doesn’t really have high pop count rookie cards, but this pricing chart on his PSA 10 Topps “Throwing” rookie is hilarious:

4. Dak Prescott

On pace for: 4,756 yards, 34 TDs (+2 rushing), 13 INTs

Some have made the argument that he’s played as well as anyone this season…and that’s been said other years, too.

He seems to be criminally underrated, but part of that is because his teams seem to let him down more than the other way around. The eye test this year tells me there are few I’d trust more in a big game.

His pricing is trickling back up, but unless he has a Matthew Stafford-like second half to his career, he’ll be more of a “what coulda been” QB with prices that don’t approach the greats.

5. Joe Burrow

On pace for: 960 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs

He’d be in consideration for that #2 spot if he weren’t still shaking off the rust from his injury (and if he wasn’t always getting injured).

But, there are few who can process plays before and during as well as he can. He seems to always make the right read and deliver the ball right where it needs to be. I’d certainly trust him in a big game.

His pricing has consistently trickled down for years now. His injuries and playing with a porous defense have led to underwhelming team finishes. I just don’t trust that he’ll get a great team around him or that he'll be durable.

6. Jordan Love

On pace for: 3,960 yards, 29 TDs, 5 INTs

It blew my mind that he’s on pace for only 5 INTs, because I feel like he still has too many boneheaded plays. I had him lower on this list before I saw his actual numbers!

Of course, the highs are really high with him, and he’s capable of having entire games where he looks as good as anyone. The Packers look like legit Super Bowl contenders.

His PSA 10 Prizm rookie at $55 - $65 might be a steal, considering he could be an MVP candidate for years to come.

7. Drake Maye

On pace for: 4,462 yards, 30 TDs (+2 rushing), 8 INTs

Not bad for someone who just turned 23… and honestly, it almost feels like I could have ranked him up there with Stafford. He gets dinged a little for having such an easy schedule, and he’s never been in the playoffs before.

His cards (of course) have skyrocketed this year, and I worry it’s a case of too much hype too soon in his career. People are projecting an all-time great career on him, and I hate doing that to someone so young. But if he wins the Super Bowl…his pricing will get silly.

8. Justin Herbert

On pace for: 3,898 yards, 29 TDs (+1 rushing), 14 INTs

I’m never quite sure what to make of him. The football nerd analysts peg him as a prototypical guy with size, arm talent, pocket awareness, athleticism, and anything else you need.

But he never totally delivers, and he’s had some huge chokes in the playoffs. I still feel like if he played on a team with an emphasis on airing it out with a good receiver corps, he’d be an MVP candidate. 8th on this list is still pretty good!

The hobby has been in “prove it” mode with Herbert for a while. His PSA 10 Prizms have bounced between $40 and $60 for about a year…but I think there’d be a massive jump if he ever goes a few rounds in the playoffs or really lights up the regular season.

9. Lamar Jackson

On pace for: 2,696 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs

The way he’s played recently shouldn’t have him even sniffing 9th place on this list… but the way he played last year would have him top 3… so I’m splitting the difference. Even this season, he started on fire.

He’s not a bad buy, as his PSA 10 Prizms have dropped from $400 late last season to around $300 now… although you might be able to get an even better deal if you wait until they miss the playoffs (if that happens).

10. C.J. Stroud

On pace for: 2,852 yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs

His mediocre second year really threw people off his scent after an all-time great rookie year, but the guy still has it.

He got off to a rocky start and even missed a few games, but advanced stats peg him as one of the best QBs in the league over the past 2 months. They’ve won 5 in a row, including over the Jags, Chiefs, Colts, and Bills.

Just for some perspective: his PSA 10 Prizm rookie sells for 1/7th the price of Drake Maye’s.

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔️ Victor Wembanyama 🏀 - Looking at his PSA 9 Silver Prizm rookie, prices jumped by double early in the season ($300 to $600). Now, he’s back down to the low $400s, but it shows the market is ready for Wemby, and it explodes when he does well. What happens when he continues to level up? He’s only 21 with MVPs and championships in his future.

✔️ Cade Cunningham 🏀 - I’m not sure that people think the Pistons are for real yet, but we’re more than a quarter of the way through. They had a hot start and haven’t really cooled off (winning 4 of their last 5). For a borderline superstar (28 pts / 9 asts) on a 1-seed, I think his cards have plenty of room to grow.

✔️ Joe Burrow 🏈 - Frankly, I’m astonished that his pricing hasn’t budged since returning. With the playoffs out of reach, the point of the final few games is to remind everyone, “Oh yeah, Joe Burrow is ELITE.” It makes no sense that his Prizm PSA 10 is below Baker Mayfield’s. As he puts up gaudy stats, I think the hobby will start to buy back in.

❌ Baker Mayfield 🏈 - I still think he’s an excellent player, but he’s just gotten a raw deal this year with team injuries. Some of his cards have dropped off considerably…but others haven’t. For example, his PSA 10 Prizm has held steady around $100. To me, that’s a clear sell before the hobby catches on that this team isn’t going anywhere. Even if they make the playoffs, the Bucs don’t have enough to make any noise.

New Releases

+ 2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Baseball (Buy on eBay) December 17 | $550 - It’s an interesting set where you’re NOT guaranteed an auto…but we’re still looking at a high price point. The real value here is in the rare parallels, some of which do BIG money. This is one of the more popular sets, despite its short track record, having debuted in 2022.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.

**Pricing taken from active eBay listings. Items ordered from links will result in a small affiliate commission at no cost to you.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Shohei the Money! - The Topps Chrome 1/1 Gold Logoman Auto is about to set a new record for any Ohtani card, and the auction still has 7 days left! When I last checked, bids were up to $1,050,000. Pretty insane for a non-rookie card.

+ That’s a “W” - “WNBA cards grew three times faster than NBA cards on [Whatnot] over the past year, tacking on 1,670% growth in search volume in 2025 (after an already-massive 870% leap in 2024).” As a dad of two girls (the older one is 9 and loves basketball), I couldn’t be happier about the growth we’re seeing. I’ve never collected WNBA, but I’ll be starting soon.

+ Stumbling into $200k - A set of vintage baseball cards was found “tucked inside a ledger that once recorded the transactions of an old convenience store in upstate New York.” I think that’ll cover Christmas expenses this year.

Up until early 2021, selling cheap cards on eBay was nearly impossible. Most buyers just weren’t willing to pay $4 for shipping on a $2 card. That’s changed now, and I sell dozens of cards worth less than $5 every month… [Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.