What’s Real, What’s Not - NBA Version

Now that we’re a few weeks into the NBA season, let’s talk about which players have skyrocketed, who’s down…and how to handle buying/selling them during the season!

Trending Up 📈

Victor Wembanyama

You don’t need me to tell you how good he is. He’s already a top-5 player on a team that keeps winning…and he’s 21.

He’s just going to get better, so he’s definitely for real. So, how do you invest in him?

I can’t fault you if you’re like, “I HAVE to have a Wemby card,” so you splurge to buy one. He’s up so much this season that it might take a while for it to be a worthwhile flip, but it’s probably not even a bad long-term play.

The worry? Some of his cards have really high pop counts…like his PSA 10 Prizm with over 26k in existence, yet the card has doubled in price in the past month.

My move would be to sell any high-pop-count cards you have, but hold the rarer ones.

Tyrese Maxey

Who would’ve thought that with Embiid and George looking like sunk costs, this team would actually be competitive and fun? We knew Maxey was good, but this is a whole new level.

I think he’s a for-real 28+ points guy on a pretty good team. If you can get him at a decent price, it’s a good time. Philly might be a 4-seed in the terrible East.

Alperen Sengun

Who needs Fred VanVleet when your center can just average 7.6 assists per game? Combined with 22 points and over 8 rebounds, he’s turning into a legit star on a contending team. He’s still just 23, and doesn’t have widespread hobby love.

I know “baby Jokic” gets thrown around, but could he be a 25/10/9 kind of player on a really good team?

Deni Avdija

Might be a new name for a lot of people out there, but he really took off in the second half of the season for Portland.

He’s kept it going this season on a team that looks like a legit playoff contender (minus their awful loss to the Lakers sans their stars).

He’s putting up 22.7 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Still just 24 years old, too. Might be a guy to grab as more people take Portland seriously this year and notice their best player.

Josh Giddey

The first 6 games for Giddey aren’t a fluke. The final 31 games last season saw him putting up 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists. Starting this season, he’s bumped all of those numbers up.

The one warning is to see if his touches drop when Coby White returns, but Giddey is young (barely 23) and talented on a team off to a hot start.

Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves

The Lakers are off to a great start, even with Luka missing a few games and LeBron not playing. Luka and Austin are the engine, and it’s hard to find a team with two offensive hubs as good as these guys (and they still have LeBron coming back!).

I think Luka is for real, of course, but I’m curious to see what happens to Reaves’ usage when LeBron comes back. I think Reaves could still be a 23-point, 7-assist player who makes the All-Star team. His pricing shows that people still don’t really believe in him.

Anthony Edwards

He’s actually down a little, but I think he’s going to explode when he comes back! With Conley getting old, their guard situation is thin—meaning Ant has to run so much himself.

I think it’s a low-key good time to buy, as there are so many players having amazing starts that Ant is overlooked right now. Give him time, and this team will be right back to winning with Ant putting up an electric 30 per night.

Trending Down 📉

Jaylen Brown

So, he’s putting up career-best type numbers, but I don’t think anyone’s going to care. This team stinks, and I’m not sure why more people didn’t think losing Tatum, Holiday, and all of your centers wasn’t going to submarine this team.

I doubt anyone in the hobby will care if he continues to put up 25 points per game.

Ja Morant

He recently got suspended for “conduct detrimental to the team,” which is a bad look after the gun issues he had. Plus, he’s barely played due to injury the past few seasons.

Oh, and when he’s played this year, he’s put up some of the worst efficiency numbers in the league. He barely made an impact when I watched him against the Lakers.

I think it’s fire sale time for him. Even a change of scenery can’t help a troubled injury history and bad shooting.

Anyone on the Mavericks

I recently read an article about how they are BY FAR the worst team in the league in the paint (offense and defense). That’s supposed to be this team’s strength. Yes, Cooper is off to a slow start, and yes, they don’t really have a point guard… but why can’t this team rebound, defend, and get some easy paint points? An absolute train wreck unless they can figure out some things.

Michael Porter Jr.

Same as Jaylen Brown above. If a basket is made in Brooklyn, does it make a sound? Maybe if he were averaging 30, but he’s at 21, on a team that seriously might win 10 games this year. His pricing isn’t astounding, but it’s either time to move off him or hope he somehow plays for a relevant team in the near future.

His PSA 10 Silver Prizm has actually trended up the past 6 months:

Paolo Banchero

I’ve been high on him all offseason, but I’m starting to waver. I know it’s early, but there are articles across the internet this week about how the Magic are still terrible offensively, and Banchero is often the reason with poor shot selection (my favorite is The Ringer’s The Paolo Plateau: What If Banchero Never Takes the Next Step?). Their team’s on/off numbers have been better with him on the bench every season.

At some point, I may have to concede that he’s a stats guy who doesn’t win. Might be harsh, but what evidence do we have to the contrary?

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Fanatics Not Buying Panini - I think most in the hobby (myself inlcuded) assumed that Fanatics would acquire Panini to continue providing licensed sets of popular releases. This article breaks it down quite nicely why this won’t be a things. It mentions 2 mains issues: 1) these companies don’t like each other and have been in constant court battles for years and 2) Fanatics-produced Topps cards already have plenty of popular sets and chase cards. They don’t really need more.

+ 1,000 Pack Giveaway - “One lucky fan is going to walk away with a motherload of packs, a thousand packs actually, and completely free!” One of the best days of my young life was buying 125 packs of 90’s basketball cards on eBay around the year 2000. I opened ALL of it in one day, and many of my best/favorite cards came from that.

+ Grading Records - “PSA led all authenticators with more than 1.97 million cards graded…a 27% increase over September and a 36% increase year-over-year.” 36% year-over-year is crazy growth…excited to see where we’re at in 5-10 years.

+ Upper Deck’s Pessimism - To balance out the optimism in the hobby’s growth, here’s Upper Deck’s president: “You're speculating. You're betting that what you buy today will be worth significantly more tomorrow,” Masherah wrote. “And that works. Until it doesn't.” He then adds “And if that money suddenly moves elsewhere to bet on something else? We all will feel it.”

Are My Cards Worth Getting Graded? Here’s How to Tell

One of the best ways to make money in the sports cards industry is to send in your cards to get graded!

Things aren’t quite like they used to be when the boom hit in early 2021…back then, you could submit almost anything and sell it for a crazy premium…[Keep Reading]

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