NFL Quarter-ish Check-In

Okay, fine, we’re closer to 1/3 of the way through the season. Didn’t the NFL consider how 17 games would be obnoxious when trying to divide evenly?

Anyway, we’re far enough into the season that it’s fun to take a look. Who’s for real? Who’s not?

And most importantly for this newsletter…

How is it all related to the hobby?

Here we go…

Who’s For Real?

Broncos

They’re two plays away from being 5-0, with both those losses on the road to tough teams. And now? Check out their next 5 games:

• Giants

• Jets

• Cowboys

• Texans

• Raiders

The Texans game is the only one on the road. There’s a decent chance the Broncos come out of that stretch at 7-3! Bo Nix hasn’t lit the world on fire, but his numbers might start stacking up against bad teams.

I’m guessing his pricing creeps up over the next month or so.

The big takeaway with NFL investing? Strength of schedule is everything.

Baker Mayfield

I’ve mentioned him before, but so many seem to not understand that he’s just an elite quarterback now!

2023 - 4,044 yards, 28 TDs, 10 INTs (9 wins)

2024 - 4,500 yards, 41 TDs, 16 INT (10 wins)

2025 - (ON PACE) 4,362 yards, 34 TDs, 3 INTs (14 wins)

He’s probably the MVP right now, which is a crazy thing to say with the other elite QBs there are in the league.

Hobby-wise? His pricing has done very well the past few months. His Donruss PSA 10 is up around 40%:

So that’s the question….

Is there another tier he can get to? Does he have a legitimate shot at the MVP? Even if he finishes 2nd or 3rd and they finish with 12+ wins, I think he can continue to go up.

49ers

Here’s the thing. I think they’re both real and not real.

Remember above when I said strength of schedule is everything?

Well, the 49ers have a laughably easy schedule, and could waltz into the playoffs with 11+ wins.

But they feel like a team to me that wins those games and then gets upset in the first round. Definitely not past round 2.

Honestly, I’m not sure if I’d really target anyone hobby-wise, even if they win all those games.

Mac Jones coming in and playing very well in place of Purdy doesn’t help his long-term pricing. People know it’s more Shanahan’s system than QB magic.

McCaffrey still catches the ball a lot, but the running just isn’t there.

All the top pass-catchers haven’t been available. This is a stay-away for me, hobby-wise.

Sam Darnold

So, early returns are that I was definitely wrong. There just isn’t a long history of first-round QBs flaming out, only to be awesome on other teams.

So when Darnold looked great last year, I figured it was a one-off.

But on a different team, he still looks great. He’s 3rd in Rating, 1st in Yards Per Attempt, 7th in TDs, and 6th in yards.

Seriously, that’s almost…MVP numbers?

It seems like the hobby still thinks about him like I do: skeptical, skeptical, skeptical.

It took Baker a few years of stellar play to really take off pricing-wise. If you believe in Darnold (I’m coming around), could that start to happen later this season on a good Seahawks team?

Plus, his pricing highs (on a Prizm PSA 10) last December were double what they are now:

Drake Maye

He might be FOR REAL, like top 7 or 8 QB by the end of the year. His pricing is doing a rocketship impression, so it all depends on where you think he goes from here.

If he’s a franchise player who’s in the MVP convo in future seasons, he might be worth holding onto. Otherwise, I’d probably ride this for a few more weeks and sell.

Who’s Not Real

Saquon Barkley

I’ve preached this before, but the stats on running backs a season after 400+ touches are alarming. Even more worrisome is that the Eagles’ line and overall scheme just aren’t performing.

He’ll still have his moments, but clear-cut best RB in the league probably isn’t happening.

Lamar Jackson

At this point, his long-term value is almost completely tied up in how he does in the playoffs. And… his team doesn’t look like a playoff team.

When he comes back, he’ll probably get a bit of a lift as they win some games…but nothing extraordinary. I’m prepared for my Lamar cards to be long-term (multiyear) holds.

Geno Smith

I think he’s just done. Like, maybe not even a starter anymore after a few more games. I doubt there’s a turnaround coming when he’s 35 and on a horrible team. I’d hold a firesale ASAP…or else his cards might just be good for kindling.

Kyler Murray

He’s interesting because I’m just out on him as a player. I can’t trust him for a full season, and I can’t see him winning multiple playoff games. Just too inconsistent.

There might be a buying opportunity, though. Looking at his Prizm PSA 10, it’s possible to get cards around $20. However, his pricing has hit $35 - $40 fairly often in the last year. So, if you’re okay with putting up with his ups-and-downs on the field, I think it’s a good play to get in at $20, list on eBay at $40, and then forget about it until it sells.

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ First Look at NBA Topps Cards - This article was from last week, but I’m encouraged by the photography and design. Some of the Topps NFL and NBA stuff recently hasn’t been great. The flagship looks good, though!

+ License to Print - “Prices for sealed boxes of 2025-26 Topps Basketball cards more than doubled on the secondary market within hours of the set’s preorder release.” Yeah, figured that would happen because basketball collectors are used to paying more, and these are the first licensed Topps NBA products in a while! I picked up a Topps Holiday Mega Box for $35. I couldn’t be happier that we now get the same licensed sets across basketball, football, and baseball.

+ SGC it Die - “SGC graded fewer total cards than Beckett for the first time in at least three years.” Saw this coming when PSA’s parent company acquired them and announced plans to scale it back. The word “boutique” was thrown around. It’s sad—resale value excluded, SGC is my favorite grading company.

The 6 Best Ways to Buy Sports Cards in Bulk

I remember having a phone call with my mom, and she told me about her neighbor that has a garage full of sports cards…like wall-to-wall, just covered in them. “How do people get so many sports cards?” I wondered at the time…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.