Second-Half NFL Team Surprises

One of the best ways to be a good collector / flipper is to be ahead of the game. If you can predict who’s about to break out, well, you’re going to make good buying/selling decisions, plain and simple.

One reason I love collecting in the NFL is that each game is so important. Just a few of them can really change a team’s fortunes. And so much of a team’s future success is schedule-based.

So, I’ve put together a list of teams that I think are going to rise or drop significantly over the rest of the year—some of it’s a gut feeling while others are based on schedule difficulty.

Second-Half Risers

New England Patriots

Current record: 6-2

Predicted record: 12-5

I know they have a terrific record, but I think many consider them an unserious team. Maye is an MVP candidate, but I don’t hear much talk otherwise.

Well, they still have games against the Jets, Bengals, Giants, Jets again, and the Dolphins. They’re getting to double-digit wins, for sure.

If you’re holding onto Maye, keep holding. His stats and team record will get tons of attention come December.

Baltimore Ravens

Current record: 2-5

Predicted record: 9-8

A bit of an easy pick, as they’re probably a Super Bowl-caliber team at full health. They probably won’t make the playoffs, but they have some hobby-relevant players that could see nice bumps once this team starts winning again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current record: 4-3

Predicted record: 10-7

No, they’re not real contenders…but their record might make you think they are here soon. With games against the Titans (twice), Jets, Raiders, and Cardinals, they could stack up wins here in a hurry. Mini Trevor Lawrence revival?

Second-Half Fallers

Denver Broncos

Current record: 6-2

Predicted record: 10-7

As a Broncos fan, I’m an eternal pessimist, even when their two losses are by just 4 points total. However, I’m not a big believer in Bo Nix (The Ringer lists him as the 27th best QB in the league), and I think he’s going to have some poor games against some of the great defenses on their schedule.

They still have games against Houston, Kansas City (twice), Green Bay, Jacksonville, and the Chargers. Wouldn’t shock me to see Nix have some unsteady games and the Broncos tail off.

While they’ll likely make the playoffs, I think it’ll be more of a “limping” in and the public (and hobby) will be down on them.

Los Angeles Rams

Current record: 5-2

Predicted record: 9-8

They are two fluke-losses away from being undefeated—and Matt Stafford is playing as well as anyone.

However, I’m a believer that injury-prone almost always wins out. Stafford’s bad back and Puka always seeming to have some injury have me just a bit down on their contender status. It’s a good time to sell high.

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔ Austin Reaves 🏀 - Usually, when someone like him has a great start to the season, it’s an automatic sell. However, there hasn’t really been movement on his stuff…and I think he’s going to be incredible this year. He’s been a “buy” for me for a while because he seems poised to be the #2 on this team. With LeBron out for a while and Reaves running 2nd units (or 1st, when Luka’s out), I bet he makes All-Star this year.

✔ Chet Holmgren 🏀 - Right now, it’s a game of “who’s taken off and no one’s noticed?” Reaves above, and now Chet. He’s crushing it right now, averaging 23 and 10, and it doesn’t seem like a fluke. If he does this for a while, he’ll rise. Take a look at his Prizm PSA 10 chart right now:

✔️ Joe Burrow 🏈 - Okay, he’s dropped enough, it’s time to get back in on him. The Bengals have put up 33 and 38 points with Joe Flacco the past two weeks. Joe Burrow is going to put up crazy stats when he returns, even if it’s not until next year.

✔️LaMelo Ball 🏀 - I’m all in on him as a livewire offensive player who puts up stats. I’m out on him as a serious long-term guy who stays healthy. So, there’s a window here to pick him up, watch him lead this crazy Hornets attack (#1 scoring team right now) and then sell him in a month or two before he gets injured.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ That Hurts, Babe - “A collector on Friday took what is believed to be the biggest loss in card collecting history when their Babe Ruth card sold for $3.2 million less than what it was bought for in December 2023.” I feel a little better about my bad flips….

+ Get Out of Town(s) - “[Karl-Anthony Towns] pulled an autographed Cooper Flagg rookie card numbered to just 50 copies.” It’s cool seeing athletes in the hobby… but part of me is also like save some for the rest of us! He makes $53 million this year.

+ Beckett’s Hot/Cold - Check out the top movers of the week (both up and down) in the hobby. Not surprising to see Shohei at the top. You may have heard, but he had a few decent games recently.

Baseball Card Inventory Spreadsheet – Free Google Sheet Template

By far the easiest way to track your collection these days is digitally! Back when most of us collected as kids, we either had to create a nicely organized filing system, or write your cards down by hand.

Yes, I’m one of those who actually kept a piece of paper with my cards on it!…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.