Top 5 Hobby Buying / Selling Mistakes

I see so many in the hobby make the same mistakes over and over again…

It doesn’t matter if you're flipping or you want to buy / sell for your PC, it’s always smart to research and be patient to avoid overpaying or selling at the wrong times.

Here are the most common that I see:

1. Falling for Hype

Too often, buyers fall for the “I love that guy, I just gotta go buy him!” without doing any other research.

If you’re excited about him right now, chances are, a bunch of others are too—which drives prices up!

Avoid players who:

• Are rookies in a new set (I pretty much always wait 6+ months after a set is released before buying).

• Are on a hot streak, won a bunch of playoff games, or just won the championship.

• Are primed to win a big award (the hobby factors in pricing before the award announcement).

• Just had some positive news (like being traded to a better team / bigger market).

I know it’s exciting if you’re a Mavericks fan to run out and buy Flagg rookie cards… but it’s almost a guarantee that you can get them at a fraction of the cost if you’re willing to wait.

2. Ignoring Pop Count

If you’re newer, pop count refers to PSA’s population count, which shows how many graded versions of each card exist.

For example, there are over 26,000 PSA 10 Prizm Wemby rookies…

So, people who think they’re going to get rich off of those, consider Michael Jordan. He basically just has the ‘86 Fleer and the ‘84 Star cards.

The ‘86 Fleer has 336 PSA 10s listed.

The ‘84 Star has 3 PSA 9s listed.

That’s why those cards sell for hundreds of thousands, something the Wemby could never even sniff if he becomes the GOAT.

So, how does that work in the real world?

Let’s say you’re considering a Josh Allen rookie card, and you’re looking at these two cards:

• Prizm PSA 10 | pop count 2,284 | $370

• Donruss PSA 10 | Pop Count 10,281 | $295

Not only is Prizm a much more quality brand, but it’s got about 1/5 the pop count! For only $75 more, I’d absolutely grab the Prizm.

3. Ignoring Past Pricing

In more cases than you’d think, past pricing indicates future movement.

Sure, players can always break through new ceilings, or free-fall past expected lows…but for players with a track record, price history is a great indicator of the future.

Here’s an example of Anthony Edwards Green Prizm PSA 9:

It takes some practice to spot these quickly, but take a look at those red lines I drew.

The hobby, as a whole, has basically decided “this card shouldn’t really go above $100 or below $60.”

This tells us a few things:

• $60 is your buy-in point. If you buy at $70 or $80 with the goal of flipping it, there isn’t really enough room to make any profit. If it’s for a PC, know that you could likely be patient and get at a better price.

• $100 is your target selling point. You can try to wait longer, but history tells us it’s more likely to drop rather than continue to increase.

#4. Ignoring the NFL Schedule

This can affect basketball as well, but it’s generally more of an NFL thing:

The schedule is one of the biggest reasons for players and teams to rise and fall.

We get so excited for teams that are 3-1, but it could’ve been against awful teams. Or, a team goes 1-3, but they played 4 awesome teams.

For players, here are a few examples of the type of analysis I’d do:

• Drake Maye is off to an amazing start, and only plays 1 above-average team out of the next 6! If you’re wondering when to sell, I’d hold off for a while longer.
  

• On the other hand, take a look at the schedule for Jonathan Taylor, who’s having a resurgence. 4 of his next 6 games are against pretty good teams/defenses. If they lose a few games and Taylor struggles, his stock drops.

I don’t start my analysis by looking at the schedule, but I always look at past & upcoming games to help determine if there’s room to grow, as well as a tentative selling window.

#5. Investing in Lower-Tier Players

This would be #1 if I were only talking to pure flippers. I hate nothing more than investing in a guy who turns into a complete zero.

When I was getting back into collecting, I bought a Drew Lock PSA 10 Prizm rookie for decent money because I thought he would win Denver’s starting job.

But, Teddy Bridgewater got the nod, and within a month, Lock’s card dropped 75% in price.

Now, I don’t just invest in the GOATs—I like to go for guys who already have a track record of being pretty good and have great upside.

But I feel like flippers in the hobby just outsmart themselves looking for the next lottery ticket rather than stacking consistent wins.

For example, the players I’ve most invested in for the NBA season:

• Doncic

• Edwards

• Amen Thompson (not there yet, but superstar trajectory)

• Cade Cunningham

• Paolo Banchero

The floor is pretty high for all of them.

What other mistakes do you see or have made yourself? Respond and let me know!

Buy/Sell Targets

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔ Shohei Ohtani ⚾ - So, his prices have been on a tear since basically forever. However, some aren’t happy with his playoff performance thus far, and his pricing has backed off a little. It’s not a crazy buying opportunity, but since his cards seem to have no ceiling, and his team is favored to win the World Series, it’s a decent time to get in on him!

✔ Luka Doncic - I’m going to keep harping on this: no one has a better MVP narrative than Luka this next year. He’s never won it. He’s in LA. He’s in shape. He plays with LeBron. I bet he won’t actually win it, but if he’s in the mix and the Lakers are better than expected, he’ll jump. I can’t believe that his pricing is actually quite a bit lower now than it was last playoffs:

✔ Sam Darnold 🏈 - Right now, you can get his PSA 10 Prizm for less than $25. He has a legitimate MVP case right now, and he was great last year, too. Sports fans take a while to get back in on someone who was written off. It took a while with Baker, and his PSA 10 Prizm is nearing $100. I think the Seahawks are better than people think, and so is Darnold.

❌ Stephon Castle 🏀 - It’s always a good reminder that 4th-best players don’t have long-term hobby value. He’s not Wemby, he’s not the max contract point guard on the team (De’Aaron Fox), and he doesn’t have the ceiling of their #2 pick, Dylan Harper. He’s going to be the forgotten man, hobby-wise. Remember that a lot of the stats he put up last year were with Wemby and Fox injured.

❌ Baker Mayfield 🏈 - You might know that I’m a “take my win and move on” kind of flipper. There certainly is an opportunity for him to keep increasing, but I think the upside is capped. I can’t see him winning MVP, much less a Super Bowl. 4 of their next 5 opponents are the Lions, Pats (suddenly good), Bills, and Rams, with 3 of those on the road. Good time to sell.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Topps Debut Patch, NBA Style - These 1/1 patches for rookies and award winners were popular in baseball, and they’re coming to basketball! “The next generational superstar will have a debut patch -- the ultimate rookie card [...] And trading cards haven't been associated with achievement, success and accolades: We're [bringing] that into trading cards."

+ New Hobby Starter Pack - “I am going to help out a new collector with 5 graded cards I would recommend to start any collection. And even better, your financial commitment will be less than $1,500. These cards are iconic in the sports cards world, and very liquid.” It’s hard not to agree with the cards he picks—although I’d definitely have a Topps Kobe rookie in there.

+ The Topps Rookies in Update - With Topps Update coming out in a few weeks, what rookies should you be on the hunt for? Cardlines ranks them by tiers (starting with Kristian Campbell).

How to Sell Sports Cards on eBay: The Investor’s Complete Guide

While there are more options than ever for selling your cards now, there’s still one monster who remains supreme: eBay!

So unless you’re a big influencer who can sell cards at ease to their FB or IG audiences, you’re likely going to do the bulk of your selling there…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.