Playoffs baby! Nothing like getting comfy on a Sunday with chips and guac and convincing the kids to settle in next to me to watch my Broncos. Of course, they’re going to lose by 30, but hey, I make a real good guac. A bit of salt, some lime juice, a dash of chipotle Tabasco… follow me for more recipes to cope with impending devastation.

- Cameron

Grading Numbers from 2024

One of my favorite things to see at the start of each new year are the grading numbers that each major company does during the year. It’s a good snapshot of where everyone is, and we can collectively laugh at Beckett.

GemRate didn’t disappoint with their breakdown. Here’s what they found:

• PSA - Graded 76% of ALL cards (15.3 million, up 13%)

• CGC - Graded 11% (2.3 million, up 27%—The vast majority were TCG cards.).

• SGC - Graded 9% (1.9 million, up 46%)

• Beckett - Graded 3% (657k, down 15%)

We already knew that PSA was king, but grading more than ¾ of all cards is astounding. Here are a few other takeaways from the report:

1. SGC with the fastest growth - While they have a long way to go to catch PSA, they had the largest percentage growth by far. They’re easily the second-largest sports card grader. Good service, clean design, and fast turnaround times are being appreciated.

2. Becket keeps Becketting - They’ve been going in the wrong direction for a while. If you’re just getting back into the hobby and think Beckett is the way to go because you used to get their mag as a kid… well, things have changed.

3. 16% Total YOY Growth - Across all companies and types of cards, 3 million more cards were graded last year than 2023. After the crazy boom a few years back and the subsequent drop-off, it seems we’re settling into a period of steady growth. I’m super excited to see what happens in the next 5+ years.

4. Over 40% of all cards graded were non-sports - This is a blind spot for me as I’ve never collected Pokemon or other non-sports stuff. That 40% number staggered me.

5. Could CGC grow in sports? - CGC is such a small grader of sports cards, but they’re an obvious #2 (behind PSA) in non-sports. I wonder if their increasing reputation might help them get more sports cards in the door as well.

Buy / Sell Opportunities

Rather than do the regular buy/sell section, let’s do a hobby preview for each NFL playoff game this weekend!

🏈 Chargers @ Texans

There’s a good chance that someone will be a big winner here. Herbert might win his first playoff game, and he’s an elite player with a lot of hype. I think the market responds to a win.

Or Stroud could have a nice redemption story after his expected leap didn’t happen this year.

Here’s Stroud’s Player Index (CardLadder’s metric of a player’s overall hobby performance) from the past 6 months:

If you think the Texans have a shot, there’s a good chance he sees a nice rebound.

My Take - Chargers win, Herbert plays well, and he sees a modest bump.

🏈 Steelers @ Ravens

I don’t see much upside for the Steelers. Russell Wilson is past his prime, and most know he’s not a great quarterback anymore. If they win, people aren’t thinking he’ll suddenly turn back into a perennial contender. His legacy is what it is now. Also, a Steelers win will be framed as a Ravens choke rather than a legitimate win by a good team.

For the Ravens, here’s Lamar Jackson’s Player Index for the past 6 months:

Winning in round one doesn’t do much for Lamar, but if he loses? Oh, boy. That could come crashing down.

My Take: Ravens cruise behind a big game from Lamar. His pricing doesn’t change much, so he’s a good hold opportunity to see if they can get to the Super Bowl. (Selling isn’t a bad option either, as he’s high right now, and his teams always find a way to choke at some point…)

🏈 Broncos @ Bills

The big hobby impact here would be if the Broncos could somehow pull off a win. A rookie QB leading his team to the playoffs, going on the road, and pulling off the upset over the presumptive MVP and what some consider the best team in the NFL?

It’s unlikely to happen, but if you’re a gambler, it could be fun to pick up a few Bo Nix cards.

My Take: The Bills absolutely pummel the Broncos, but Josh Allen’s market doesn’t move because he was expected to do this. Bo Nix is a good hold candidate with a bright future and playoff games ahead of him.

🏈 Packers @ Eagles

This would be a nice win for a young(ish) QB on the road against a team that’s been on fire. I think Jordan Love would get a good bump from a win like this, and they have the goods to do it. They narrowly lost in week 1 at Philly.

On the Eagles’ side, I think it’s all about Saquon. Most people seemed to have moved on from Hurts as a potential elite QB, but I think fans (and the hobby) want to love Saquon. Yes, his index is up during the season:

But I really think he could continue to increase with massive performances in the playoffs.

My Take: The Eagles win this one with a classic Saquon game, and he jumps in price. Hurts doesn’t get much of a bump as everyone attributes his success to his WRs, RB, and offensive line.

🏈 Commanders @ Buccaneers

You don’t need me to tell you what the hobby’s excited about here. If Jayden Daniels, after a 12-5 season, can guide his team to a playoff victory on the road, he’s going to skyrocket.

On the Buccaneers, I don’t think Baker moves the need a ton. He’s good (Bill Simmons has him 3rd for MVP), but I’m not sure he’ll ever be truly elite. Besides, he won a playoff game just last year, so it wouldn’t be new for him. I think he needs to win at least two rounds to get a bump.

My Take: I’m going with Jayden Daniels on this one. I think it’s a high-scoring game with Daniels making more plays than Mayfield for them to win a close one. Get ready for the hype.

New Releases

+ 2023-24 Contenders Optic Basketball (January 10 | $325) - I think regular Contenders looks a bit cheap, but the Optic version doesn’t have that problem. Each box will have an auto, and you can also find numbered parallels, printing plates, and some pretty cool case hits. The Black Pandora parallels sell well.

+ 2024 Topps Definitive Baseball (January 10 | $2,400) - One of the definitive (pun intended, #notsorry) high-end baseball products of the year, Definitive boasts 6 autos or auto relics, along with 2 relic cards. The patches are high quality, the checklist is insane, and (new this year) you can get quad auto cards. Awesome box for breaks.

+ 2024 Panini Prizm Collegiate Draft Picks Basketball (January 10 | $200) - College products aren’t for everyone—as evidenced by the low-for-basketball price tag—but where else can you get 4 licensed autos for this price? Along with the autos, you’ll get 12 prizms, 4 silvers, and 4 inserts—including a chance at the valuable Manga, Color Blast, and Stained Glass cards. You’ll even get some NCAAW players in here, including a chance at Caitlin Clark autos! (Just be sure to sell fast—these cards don’t hold their values long).

+ 2024 Bowman’s Best Baseball (January 15 | $399) - Featuring a tight 100-card checklist of prospects, rookies, and veterans, this is a fun rip without much filler. You’ll get 4 autos, 12 refractors, and the potential for tons of numbered cards and inserts. On the higher end, price-wise, for baseball, but it’s a high-quality product.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.

Quick Hits

The 3 best things I saw this week

+ Top 25 Cards of 2024 - I can’t believe the LeBron, Curry, Durant Olympic triple auto wasn’t #1…but it makes sense with the Paul Skenes 1/1 MLB Debut patch auto out there somewhere.

+ 5 Bold Predictions for 2025 - Did you know that in the past year “more Charizards were graded than Wembanyamas and more Pikachus than Michael Jordans?” Fanatics should release a new Pokemon set under the Topps brand.

+ $2 Million Card Collection Sold - “Dallas-area sports card dealer Jeremy Donson…was working a sports card show…when a man walked in with a large roller bag filled with approximately 500 slabs.” I’d have had my own security team walking around with that.

Question of the Week