Been knocked on my butt by the worst fever/migraines I’ve ever had. Bit of a paired-down version today. Hope you get to do something awesome this weekend!

- Cameron

Weighing in on Skenes 1/1 Controversy

Podcasts, Facebook groups, YouTube videos… all the hobby talk right now centers on the insane Paul Skenes 1/1 story.

If you’re (somehow) uninitiated with this story, here are the general beats:

• 11-year-old kid pulls biggest recent chase: the 1/1 Paul Skenes Topps Chrome Update Rookie Debut Patch Auto Card.

• He lives in L.A. and pulled the card on Christmas day.

• The kid rejects a massive offer from the Pirates (30 years of season tickets, autographed jerseys, and more).

• The card will be sold on Fanatics Collect where it’s likely to go for 7 figures.

• Hobby conspiracy theorists go nuts and the internet turns into a flaming turd fire—including a demand to see pictures of the boy holding the card and releasing his name.

• Topps releases a pic of the boy’s journal (without his name).

Many are claiming that everything lining up this way is “convenient” for Topps and especially Fanatics.

Why?

A kid opening it on Christmas day is already a much better story than Backyard Breaks or another massive hobby presence pulling it as they rip a kajillion cases.

These kinds of cards almost always sell on Goldin, so it appears fishy to some that he’d list the card on Fanatics Collect (who is trying to get a foothold, and a card like this is a massive win for them).

Plus, they’re donating a good chunk of the sale to relief for the LA wildfires.

Real or Not Real?

Well, I don’t have an inside scoop here, but I find it preposterous Topps/Fanatics would make this story up.

I’ll admit, it’s great publicity for Topps to have the card found this way. I’m guessing the Fanatics Collect part happened because they offered something incredible to the family (such as a much lower fee to sell on their platform). That feels natural to me.

With a card this big, you already know the discourse if a big breaker had pulled it:

“Of course they pulled it! Topps must save the best boxes for them because they have massive audiences.”

And the truth is, those guys do pull most of the biggest cards because they open a ton of product. But you know what? Card stores (physical or online) and eBay still sell tons of boxes. I open a decent amount and I don’t buy stuff from breakers.

There’s probably a few million people like me out there, so it’s not crazy that a kid would pull this card.

And also, lastly, the family not releasing the name/image of the kid is NOT proof this didn’t happen…it’s proof they’re smart. Would you really want to advertise that you (especially your kid) is stumbling into 7 figures? Insane.

Buy / Sell Opportunities

Super Bowl baby! Let’s talk about hobby fallout from this last weekend and smart moves to make moving forward.

Last Weekend’s Games

Josh Allen - Didn’t see much of a drop (yet?) because pretty much everyone thinks he’s awesome and he’s still the massive betting favorite to win the MVP.

To me, he’s a hold if you have him (and you’re willing to play the long game). If you want to buy in, wait for the offseason. We’ve seen a mild drop, but the sport as a whole tends to trend down a little when they’re not square in the limelight.

Jayden Daniels - His Prizm base the day before the loss was selling in the $47 - $55 range, but now it’s selling around $38 - $45. We saw a bit of a drop-off, but it’s hard to tell how much of it was that Prizm is still a new-ish release (so prices come out high and drop) and the volume of Jayden Daniels sales over the past few weeks is insane.

If you have a Prizm rookie…SELL. Those base cards are going to drop, no matter how good he is. There’s too much volume and people are still paying a premium for them.

A base Joe Burrow Prizm rookie sells for about $12, and he’s been to a Super Bowl and had one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history. $40 base rookies won’t hold. You can always buy it back for half the price in 6 months.

🏈 Chiefs vs Eagles (+1.5)

Jalen Hurts 

We’ve got a clear trend on his PSA 10 Prizm pricing:

And, he really showed out last Sunday where he finally threw for decent yardage in a playoff win (and 3 rushing TDs don’t hurt). If I had a big Jalen Hurts card, I’d list it now on a Buy It Now, or an auction that runs from this Saturday to next Saturday. Usually, Super Bowl bumps happen before the win.

Saquon Barkley 

Man, what a show this guy puts on! I’ve been riding the Saquon train the whole playoffs, saying that the hobby was ready to love this guy.

Well, here’s his CardLadder Player Index for the past 3 months:

Well, he’s there. He’s got to be Philadelphia’s most popular athlete now, right? It sure isn’t Embiid (lol) and Bryce Harper plays a sport that’s hard to compare.

Either way, I know I said to sell Jalen before the game…and doing the same with Saquon is probably the right call. But, man, I just have this feeling that if they win, there’s a good chance he wins Super Bowl MVP. He’s mega-popular, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his pricing gets another bump and sustains for a while.

On a longer-term note for him, it’s rare for a running back to have back-to-back seasons that are this good. He (and the Eagles O-line) is certainly good enough to do it, but there’s a good chance he never reaches these highs again. Right now, he might only be behind Terrell Davis’s two Super Bowl winning seasons as the greatest seasons a running back’s ever had.

Patrick Mahomes

If you’ve got Mahomes’s stuff, good news! You can’t really lose. If he retires tomorrow, he’s considered a top-5 QB ever. Usually, you can’t expect big bumps for a possible fourth Super Bowl win. But here’s his 6-month Player Index:

Crazy, right? I guess people are really excited for him to get a chance at the first-ever NFL 3-peat.

If you’re not a long-term hold kinda collector, I’d sell before the Super Bowl. Otherwise, just hold forever and he’ll probably keep steadily going up in value, like a 401(k).

New Releases

+ 2024 Leaf Ultimate Sports (January 31 | $480) - Leaf has long been a master of the multi-sport, unlicensed auto cards, and this set is the cream of the crop. You only get 3 cards per box, but they’re all labeled as “premium hits.” Just check out this list of auto/memorabilia potentials: Pele, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Lionel Messi, Barry Sanders, Steph Curry, Ichiro, Mike Tyson, Conor McGregor, Josh Allen, Albert Pujols, and so many more.

+ 2024-25 Panini NBA Hoops Basketball (January 31 | $160) - Let’s just say that I’m glad this product is cheap. This rookie class is miserable (the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year is Kel’el Ware - averaging just 8.6 points and 4.8 rebounds). The box has Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard on the front—two rookies who’ve yet to make much impact. If you want to rip with your kids, at least you get 192 cards per box with a guaranteed auto and a bunch of (low-end) inserts. If it were me, I’d much rather spend that $160 on a decent Wemby card.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.