Super Bowl Cards: How I’d Play It (and What Last Week Taught Us)

Last week was a good reminder of how fast the hobby moves and how quickly narratives change.

• Matthew Stafford played really well and still lost.

• Bo Nix didn’t make it, but somehow came out looking better.

• Jarrett Stidham… we’ll get to him.

That pretty much sums up how weird the hobby can be.

A quick look at last week’s losers

Let’s start with the quarterbacks who didn’t advance.

+ Stafford helped himself. He looked sharp, stayed composed, and did what you’d want him to do in that spot. The loss wasn’t on him. Special teams and defense were the issue. From a hobby standpoint, I don’t see much changing here. I’d expect his market to look pretty similar to where it was going into the game.

+ Bo Nix is in a really good spot. The conversation has already shifted to “If Nix were playing, the Broncos would be in the Super Bowl.” I agree with that, and more importantly, it’s the kind of thing the hobby latches onto. He didn’t play poorly because he didn’t play at all, but the potential of what he could have done looms large. Interesting “buy” candidate in the offseason before next season’s hype kicks in.

+ Stidham is back where he started. He needed everything to go right, and it didn’t. That’s just the reality with players in that tier.

The Super Bowl card mistake I see every year

Here’s the trap people fall into around the Super Bowl:

They assume a win automatically means a big price jump.

Sometimes you’ll see a handful of sales come in higher right after the game. Then, pretty quickly, prices settle back into a familiar range. What a Super Bowl win does tend to do is raise the player’s long-term baseline. There’s usually less downside afterward.

But if you’re buying right now expecting a huge spike, you’re usually late. By the time the Super Bowl gets here, a lot of the optimism is already priced in.

I’m not saying prices won’t jump… it’s just become harder to predict, and I don’t like guessing with money on the line.

How I’m thinking about this game

Now let’s talk about the quarterbacks still playing.

Drake Maye

If I’m holding Drake Maye cards right now, I’m selling.

Not because I don’t like him. I do. But his prices have already made a massive move. Yes, he probably sees a bump if he wins. The question is how much that actually adds on top of where things already are.

When prices run this far this fast, you’re taking on a lot of risk just to squeeze out a little more upside. That’s not a spot I love heading into the biggest game of the year.

Sam Darnold

Darnold’s run has been impressive, and his pricing has moved up because of it. The big difference compared to Maye is that he’s still much cheaper.

That gives him more room to move if things break right, especially if he plays well and they win.

That said, I wouldn’t expect a massive re-rating overnight. There’s still a big chunk of the hobby that doesn’t fully trust him, fair or not.

Because of that, the risk/reward feels off to me.

There’s upside, but the downside is still very real. Personally, I’d be looking to move Darnold cards sometime over the next couple of weeks rather than betting everything on one game.

The bigger lesson

Big games create big emotions. That’s usually when mistakes happen in the flipping game.

If you’ve already made a nice move on these quarterbacks, there’s nothing wrong with locking it in. You can always buy back later. You can’t undo overpaying.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ The Topps Freshman - “AJ Dysbantsa’s shorts from his 43-point explosion are going inside a 1-of-1 autographed trading card.” I keep saying this: the more cards like this from specific events, the better off we are in the hobby. I know it’s from a regular season game, but it’s still a rare card commemorating a real game. 10/10, no notes.

+ Parallel Universe - I’m not always the best at baseball, so here’s an article to help you see some of the better cards to invest in: 3 Baseball Card Parallels to Invest in Before the 2026 MLB Season.

+ X-Fractor Oopsie - “A proposed class action lawsuit accuses Topps of misleading consumers after the trading card company revealed in an email that its 2025-26 NBA Chrome Basketball Trading Card Mega Box sets were missing the ultra-rare Blue X-Fractor cards, which were central to the company’s marketing of the product.” This is fascinating to me! It definitely seems like false advertising, but I wonder how much a judge would actually award, considering the odds of any individual pulling an X-ractor are astronomically low.

How to Quickly Sell Your 90s Sports Cards for the Most Profit

So you’ve unearthed those old sports cards you collected as a kid. It’s fun, right?

When I did it, I had a blast remembering the endless hours I spent sifting through those cards, reading the backs of them for fun. I remembered players I hadn’t thought about in a while (Nick Van Exel, anyone?). I remember trading with my friends, and how I used to save up my allowance to buy packs… [KEEP READING]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.