3 of my kids (including the 5-month-old) currently have Chicken Pox, despite everyone I mention it to helpfully saying, “I thought that had been eradicated.” They’re unaware of the incubation power of 5 small children. I’m convinced ground-zero for the next pandemic will be a family with 11 kids where they all keep passing around the same sickness over and over until it mutates into an unbeatable demon virus.

- Cameron

My Frustrating Napkin Patch

If you haven’t heard this before, many (most?) relic cards in the hobby have this fun disclaimer on the back:

As this has become more commonplace in recent years, people in the hobby have jokingly referred to these as “napkin” patches. Because they’re not from a game or event, it could be a napkin from IHOP.

And pricing is seriously low on these types of cards.

This past week, I opened 3 boxes of Prizm Football, and I pulled this almost beauty of a card:

Buy / Sell Opportunities

Like last week, I’m going to do a rundown of the NFL playoff games with their hobby implications!

🏈 Commanders @ Eagles (-6)

I’ve been saying for weeks that the hobby wants to go all in on Saquon…and that’s what we’re seeing, according to his CardLadder Player Index:

It helps that he might be having the greatest running back season of all time when you figure in the playoffs. He’s 149 yards shy of the regular season + playoffs rushing yards record (the top 2 totals are both Terrell Davis with his epic playoff runs in ‘97 and ‘98).

Plus, chicks dig the long ball, and he now has a record six touchdowns of over 60 yards.

With Hurts, we’re seeing a bit more hesitation in his pricing (this is for the Prizm PSA 10):

We’ve got some increase in the past few weeks, but it’s still lower than in parts of December. As I pointed out last week, he’s never broken 155 passing yards in ANY of his playoff wins…and the trend continues (4 games and counting…).

On the other side, we’ve got Jayden Daniels, who might be having the best rookie season in NFL history. He’s only the 6th rookie to make the Conference Championship game, and I’d say that he’s by far the most poised and the most depended-upon for their team’s success.

Those rookies were also 0-5 in Conference Championship games, so if Jayden Daniels makes the Super Bowl, his pricing will get out of hand.

CardLadder has limited data on him as there still aren’t a ton of cards out there, but here’s his Player Index:

Seems about right though.

My Take: Let’s have some fun. I’m riding Washington on the back of their star rookie. I don’t think the Eagles will keep up with their absent passing game. Jayden Daniels is going to experience more hype than perhaps any rookie ever if this happens. If you have him and they win, I’d sell in the week leading up to the Super Bowl. If Washington loses, Jayden’s still a great long-term bet. Saquon’s a fun gamble though—if he cements the greatest RB season ever with more long-distance runs and makes it to the SB, he’ll keep rising.

🏈 Bills @ Chiefs (-2)

Josh Allen’s Player Index:

Feels about right, too. Of course, Mahomes has knocked Allen out of the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years, so the hobby would love to see Allen take him out.

Here’s Patrick’s Player Index:

I don’t have a feel for the highs he experienced before the drop-off in December. They lost their bid for a perfect season on November 17th, so it’s not that.

Either way, we’re seeing the inevitable increase as his team makes their way through the playoffs. Another Super Bowl appearance would (of course) help his pricing, but since he’s already won three, the increase would be nothing compared to what would happen to Allen’s market.

My Take: I think this is Allen’s season. He’s playing as well as anyone in the NFL and the Chiefs seem beatable. Even in their easy win against the Texans, they barely had 200 yards of offense, and only scored more than 30 points twice all season. I don’t think that beats Josh Allen, who’s pricing is going to take a big leap as he finally beats Mahomes and finally gets to a Super Bowl.

If you have Mahomes, no sweat. He’s one of the best ever and a loss like this won’t hurt him long-term.

New Releases

+ 2023-24 Topps Finest Basketball (January 23 | $240) - As a basketball diehard, I’m super interested in this product! While it is unlicensed, we’re still getting a look at what Fanatics is going to do here. With two autos and a bunch of inserts and parallels, there are plenty of hits to be had. The big news though? We get ALL the rookie autos from 23-24, meaning Wemby autos can be found here. I don’t love the look of the cards, so hopefully, that’s something they can improve upon in future editions. All in all, it's not a bad price tag for unlicensed cards.

+ 2024 Panini Donruss Football (January 29 | $425) - One of the hobby’s favorites because it’s on the cheaper end (for football, at least). You get a ton of cards per box (180, to be exact), making this a great rip for kids. Sure, most of the top rookies don’t have autos here, but there’s only one per box, anyway. You can still get incredible inserts like Gridiron Marvels and Downtown!

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.

Quick Hits

The 3 best things I saw this week

+ Top NFL Rookie Autos (FINALLY) - 2024 Topps Chrome Football “does include autographs from several rookies that have exclusive deals with Fanatics. Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are among them.” I know, I know, they’re not licensed, but with Panini not having those autos in their products, these are going to be chases.

+ Topps Series 1 Chases - Here’s our first look at what 2025 rookies will be included in this flagship set—with the headliners being James Wood and Coby Mayo.

+ Capture the Flagg Auto - “Topps has made a major move by signing one of the most exciting college athletes of the past year, Cooper Flagg.” We’ll see him (and his auto) first in Bowman University Chrome!

Question of the Week