I got my Clye Drexler Immaculate auto /99 a few days ago—my first pickup of the new year! I now have autos for 23 of the top 75 NBA players…with most of the expensive ones left. Maravich is probably the hardest to find because he passed away in ‘89. Wilt’s a tough one, too. Even Mikan lived long enough to have some autos in various sets.

What do you collect? I’d love to hear about it.

- Cameron

Last Week’s NFL Losers (Hobby-Style)

Later on, I’m covering the hobby relevance of the games being played this weekend… so here, let’s cover the losers and what the hobby fallout is for them.

Chargers

That’s a tough look for Mr. Herbert as he’s yet to win a playoff game in his career. They lost to a team that won a bad division and who most were pretty down on (Texans). He threw more interceptions in this game (4) then he had all season (3)

His pricing hasn’t really dropped, though, which makes me think of a couple of possibilities:

• His price will drop significantly as we move on without him.

• His pricing won’t really drop as people are still super high on his talent.

• People aren’t really pinning the loss on him because it’s just the Chargers being the Chargers.

I think it’s really more of a combination. I’m going to wait a bit and hope his pricing eventually drops and then scoop him up. The Chargers are different with Harbaugh at the helm, and that team still has no weapons around Herbert. I think in the next 2 years they have a juggernaut-type season with 14+ wins because Herbert & Harbaugh are that good.

Vikings

Just a mauling all around. Darnold’s pricing is starting to drop, and I think there’s still a loooong way until we reach his floor. If he bounces around this offseason, I think he keeps falling. If the Vikings keep him and pay him, people might stick around for a second look at him on a really good team. In the meantime, I’d be buying low on J.J. McCarthy as he could be starting on the Vikings or another team next year.

Here’s Darnold’s Player Index:

Buccaneers

I don’t know about you, but isn’t Baker pretty easy to root for? He’s exciting, he’s running more (and dealing hits!), and he seems to be a top-10ish QB. If you believe in this Buccaneers team, I’d wait until the offseason (where most pricing drops) and pick up Baker. The hobby is coming around on him.

Steelers

We can keep this short. I think this is a team with no future and no answer at QB. They are very nearly hobby irrelevant unless they trade for JJ McCarthy or trade up in the draft for a QB.

Buy / Sell Opportunities

Like last week, I’m going to do a rundown of the NFL playoff games with their hobby implications!

🏈 Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5)

So far, the hobby isn’t impressed with CJ Stroud’s win over the Chargers. Here’s his pricing for a Prizm PSA 10 rookie:

That teeny bump from a few days ago is hilariously small…followed by a drop right back down.

Of course, a lot of that pricing drop has to do with the new product releasing high and then declining as more PSA 10s make it out there… but his play this year hasn’t helped.

But beating the Chiefs? I think his market starts to rebound.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs—on 3 weeks’ rest with a genius coach—are a terrible draw.

My Take: Very little hobby relevance here. The Chiefs are expected to win and the Texans are expected to lose. IF, SOMEHOW, the Texans pull this off with a great game from CJ, his market would move. But you’re better off pulling slots in Vegas.

🏈 Commanders @ Lions (-9.5)

Unfortunately, there’s not a ton of data out there for Jayden Daniels’s card market (and the new stuff suffers from new-product downturns), but obviously winning a playoff game where he looked amazing can’t hurt.

I can’t see much happening for the Lions here, as few trust Goff as a top QB. Perhaps one of his young receivers or Gibbs has a fantastic game and sees some movement.

Washington is a massive underdog for a reason, but Jayden Daniels has a good opportunity to show out and bump his pricing, win or lose.

My Take: Detroit wins, but Jayden Daniels single-handedly keeps the game close with his poise and playmaking (plus, Detroit’s defense allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the regular season). I think he sees a bump even in this scenario and people go into next season treating him like the next great superstar. If he wins…to the moon.

 🏈 Rams @ Eagles (-6)

I think this game has fairly boring hobby repercussions, as I don’t think either QB moves the needle. Stafford is too old to become a hobby darling (especially when talking about the second round) and Hurts, well, just isn’t relied upon.

In Hurts’ 3 playoff wins, he’s had 131, 121, and 154 yards passing. He’s had some decent rushing stats, but this team relies on Saquon and the Tush Push.

My Take: I would love to see the Rams win (I’m from L.A.) and they’re the Team of Destiny right now with what’s happening in Southern California. I think they have the Coach-QB combo to do it, too. If they win, Stafford maybe gets a small bump, but I honestly doubt it. If the Eagles win, look to Saquon to have a big game and a continued increase in his pricing. Here’s his Card Ladder Player Index for the past year:

Usually, that’s a sign to sell…but I think (as I said last week) that the hobby is rooting for him and he’s electric on a popular team. I’d wait one more week to see if the Eagles can win at home.

🏈 Ravens @ Bills (+1.5)

Bills as home underdogs?? I kind of agree with it, too. But man, I can’t remember another matchup that I was more excited to see. Two teams that dominate the run game and have superheroes at QB. One has 2 MVPs and the other is likely to win his first. The Ringer’s QB Rankings have Allen-Jackson at 1-2. Buckle up.

Both Allen and Jackson have a lot to prove in the playoffs after repeatedly coming up short—so whoever wins will likely be seen as “Oh, he’s finally proving himself in the playoffs!” Also, the winner will need to have a monster game to overcome the other.

My Take: I’m going Ravens with the better D and King Henry bulldozing the middle of the Bills’ defense. I think it’ll be a shootout with both QBs putting up huge stats. Lamar gets a bump as he finally wins a big playoff game and gets closer to the Super Bowl.

New Releases

+ 2024 Topps Transcendent Collection Baseball (January 22 | $8,400) - I wasn’t even going to include this one here, but it’s a sparse release week! The Sell Sheet says these are “the most premium trading card experience.” So yes, you get a bunch of incredibly nice autos, patches, rookies, and even a possible invite to a VIP event…but it prices out 99.9% of the market.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.

Quick Hits

The 3 best things I saw this week

+ Fanatics (and many others) Donates $3 Million to Wildfire Victims - If there’s one ray of sunshine on an otherwise heartbreaking and worsening story, it’s that people often band together to help in times like these. In addition to all the companies, teams, and philanthropists, there are plenty of everyday heroes, like firefighters, paramedics, and just good neighbors pitching in to help. Kudos to news reporters who continue to put boots on the ground in dangerous situations to let people know which areas are in danger.

+ “One of One! One of One!” - I need a pick-me-up after a deep dive into the LA wildfires. This adorable video of a kindergartner finding a rare Paul Skenes card should do the trick.

+ “I Found Them in a Cigar Box” - Okay, I needed another pick-me-up. This lady found a cigar box in her dad’s closet under a stack of sweaters. The look on her face at the valuation does it for me.

Question of the Week