Divisional Round Hobby Preview!

Bills @ Broncos (-1.5)

With a great win over the Jags, Josh Allen saw some movement in his card pricing. If they win this game, it’s probably another “Josh Allen puts on the superhero cape” game. Beating the 1-seed to advance will definitely help his pricing, but probably only small bumps until they get to the Super Bowl.

Bo Nix has seen a decent price bump lately after securing the 1-seed. His Silver Prizms were selling for around $60-$70 in late December, and now the last two sales are $85 and $95. If he beats Josh Allen, there’ll be another bump (how big depends on whether he plays awesome or if the defense carries him).

My take: I can’t believe the Broncos are favored in this game (although various books have different lines). The Broncos’ defense has been fraudulent for a bit, and the other team has, well, Josh Allen.

If you’re looking for a good time to sell Nix, I’d do it now before the game. Josh Allen would be a hold for me—even if he loses, he’s still one of the best long-term holds in the game anyway.

Texans @ Patriots (-3)

Drake Maye is skyrocketing. His PSA 10 Prizm rookie has gone from around $75 to over $300 in just under 3 months!

But if he wins this game, it’ll probably continue. We’re seeing a 23-year-old breaking out in real time, with perhaps an MVP year. He just doesn’t have bad games. Even after a shaky first half against the Chargers, he had a bunch of high-level throws later to put the game away. 

CJ Stroud, on the other hand, is still super low (PSA 10 Prizms are around 1/9th the price of Maye’s). If they win, I think he has a decent bump, but nothing crazy. When the hobby goes off someone as hard as they have for CJ, it’ll probably take a few more wins to really move the needle (Plus, I don’t think he played that well despite the high point total). However, he doesn’t need to rise much to get a nice return on a flip.

My Take: I’m riding Drake Maye and the Pats. I think he’s too expensive to buy into right now, but I also wouldn’t sell him, either. I just believe in his ability, and even if they lose, I don’t think his market crashes. People still see him as perhaps the best player in the league in the very near future.

(But taking a flyer on a mid-end Stroud card isn’t a bad idea either)

49ers @ Seahawks (-7)

I see more room for upside for Purdy than for Darnold. Darnold has rehabilitated his career with consecutive 14-win seasons, but he still isn’t seen as close to elite. It’s that he’s been on great teams that can overcome his rockiness.

If the Seahawks win, the narrative is more “they were supposed to win” and “their defense is elite.” If the 49ers win, it’s likely because Purdy has a big game, and it’ll be a nice upset win. 

My Take: I think the Seahawks win, with the 49ers defense not good enough to bring out “bad Darnold.” In this case, I’m not that interested in going in on any players right now. I’d probably sell Purdy as he’s had a nice increase with the late-season run.

Rams @ Bears (+4.5)

As hoped, Puka saw a bit of an increase after last week’s win, and I’m guessing that would continue if the Rams advance. Stafford needs to keep advancing to really make a difference in his pricing, as winning is more closely tied to QBs than a WR. In fact, if Puka has an awesome game and they lose, he might still go up.

The Bears, well, Caleb is on a star-making run. After that insane 4th quarter, we saw an understandable price bump. If they can pull off this upset, he’s going to keep jumping. 

Remember how I said Drake Maye is up over $300? The same card (PSA 10 Prizm) for Williams is sitting at $125. Caleb has all the tools a QB needs, so it’s easy to get excited about him with a few wins and room to grow in pricing.

My Take: Who knows? I love the Rams, but they struggled with the Panthers. The Bears keep winning insane games, so that feels like it can’t continue…can it?

If you want to buy in on someone, I’d go with Caleb. Even if they lose this game, he’s getting better and better on an up-and-coming team. He’s not a bad long-term hold. If Puka keeps up his run of just, like, always being awesome, he could certainly become an all-time great player at his position. 

I wouldn’t buy Stafford right now, but if you have him, why not wait to see if the run continues?

*Quick note: When looking to invest in a card, I usually prefer buying something rarer than a base Prizm rookie. I just use them as the comparison point when researching and comparing players. For example, I love going with colored Prizms (like silver or green), autos, or numbered cards.

Quick Hits

News From Around the Hobby

+ Shohei’s 50th Captured - “Ohtani's 2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball Red Refractor Auto /5 card depicts his celebration in Miami after launching his 50th HR.” I LOVE when cards capture specific moments like this, especially when it’s a rare auto. This is the exact kind of chase I would drool over if I were a massive Ohtani fan. More of this, please.

+ 23 and Me - “LeBron James will begin wearing a 23rd season patch that will then be removed from his jersey after games and ‘some will be placed into ultra-rare trading cards.’” These are meant to be similar to the Debut Patches that have been so popular. I like them, for now, I’m just not excited 5 years from now when they have “3rd place in Most Improved Player” patches. Keep these suckers exclusive and meaningful.

+ Fanatics Studio Launch - “[Fanatics] plans to produce live events, unscripted and scripted original series, feature films and digital content.” I’m still digesting what this means for the hobby, but I think it has to lead to more exposure to sports cards, which I’m all for.

+ Prizm Time - “A Los Angeles woman was arrested in Burbank after she tried to sell high-value sports trading cards worth about $10,000.” People are dumb.

5 Tell-Tale Signs You Should Sell Your Sports Cards Now

Collecting cards is fun…but selling them for a profit is even MORE fun—at least in my opinion. 

I love having a nice PC (personal collection) to sift through, but when I can turn a card into a nice profit to buy MORE PC cards…that’s hard to beat! [Keep Reading]

Check Out My New Book, Now Available on Amazon

Forwarded? Subscribe here to get the next one!

Some recommended products in this newsletter are affiliate links. If you purchase, I may earn a small commission. Every recommended product is something I’ve used and would personally recommend to a friend.

The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.